NFL Draft – 1st Round QBs

The NFL Draft starts on April 30.  The combines are currently underway and everyone and their brother are projecting who will go where when the fun finally starts.  As usual, the QB class is garnering much of the attention – in particular, Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston.  SOD has seen mock drafts in which Marcus Mariota is the 1^st pick and Jaimeis Winston drops to #10.  SOD has seen mock drafts in which Jaimeis Winston is the 1^st pick and Marcus Mariota drops to #18.  Heck, SOD has seen mock drafts in which Marcus Mariota is not only not the first QB taken, but he isn’t even the first Marcus drafted – that falls to Marcus Peters, a CB out of Washington.  Regardless, however, the 2015 NFL Draft Class will see these two young men drafted in the first round.

So, historically, what does that say of the chances for success in the NFL for these two aspiring athletes?

In the past 10 years, there have been 24 QBs drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft.  Of those 24 men, half of them, 12, are currently listed as the starting QB on an NFL depth chart.  Of those 12 starting QBs, 10 of them are starting for the team that drafted them; only Mark Sanchez (drafted by NY Jets, starting for Philadelphia) and Jay Cutler (drafted by Denver, starting for Chicago) are starting for another team.  Six of the 24 first round draft picks in the past 10 years, no longer play in the NFL.  Sam Bradford, is not currently listed on the St. Louis Rams’ roster, but he was not counted as one of those 6 out of the league. 

Over the past 3 years, 8 QBs have been drafted in the 1^st round and 6 of them are currently listed as the #1 QB on the depth charts, although EJ Manuel may not hold that position at the start of the 2015 season.  Only Johnny Manziel and Brandon Weeden are not currently starting QBs.  That’s a pretty good run for drafted QBs in recent years.  However, of the 6 QBs drafted in 2011 and 2010, only Cam Newton is listed as a current #1 QB.  Jake Locker and Sam Bradford have been starting QBs that are currently injured – whether or not they regain a starter’s position is questionable.    Going beyond 10 years, there are six 1^st round drafted QBs starting in the NFL.

Of the 32 teams in the NFL, 18 of them have a 1^st Rd QB listed as the #1 Starter in their current depth chart.  Five starting QBs were drafted in the 2^nd round; three in the 3^rd round; one in the 4^th; 2 in the 6^th round; and, three starting QBs were undrafted.  Now, some of these team’s depth charts to start 2015 will be different than what is listed today – but, that is currently how things stand.  So, although a 1^st round pick does not guarantee success in the NFL – the odds are pretty good that a 1^st round drafted QB will end up starting in the NFL.

With two highly touted QBs in the 2015 class, the question is: Will this be more like the 2008 class or the 2007 class?  The two QBs selected in 2008 are still both starting QBs for their drafting teams and have each started 110 or more games over their 7 years in the league (out of a possible 112 games).  The two QBs selected in 2007 are both out of the league after having only started a combined 45 games before changing careers.  Will Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota be more like Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco or more like JeMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn?  It is hard to remember the mindset at that time, but, it is easy to believe that the expectations were just as high for each of these QB draft classes.  In fact, a Russell/Quinn combination almost seems a better comparison to Winston/Mariota going into the draft.

Of course, like all things, time will tell.  You never know what circumstances regarding injuries or other situations might play out to influence the careers of these two men, but, it is fun to speculate.

The draft is still 2 months away and we will have plenty of stories to read about why they will or will not succeed from experts looking into the future.  We will hear about their athletic promise, their perceived character and, apparently, how much weight they have put on in the off-season.

Meanwhile, SOD will  focus more on the college kids who step in to replace these young men on the teams they are leaving.  The circle of life continues.

30 Random Thoughts for the First Post on a New College Football Blog

1) The last thing the world needs is another blog on College Football.
2) Especially, a College Football blog written by a schmuck with no business writing a College Football Blog.
3) Starting a new College Football Blog on January 23 is about as stupid as it gets.
4) Since Braxton Miller has already graduated and does not have to sit out a year if he transfers – I think he should transfer.
5) Remember that Russell Wilson did number 4.
6) Even though almost every analyst I hear is saying Marcus Mariota is a can’t miss NFL prospect – I think he can miss.
7) I hope Jameis Winston grows up.
8) I bet the Baltimore Ravens don’t trade up to get Jameis Winston in the draft – or ever.
9) I think the Big 12 is making a Big mistake if it doesn’t expand to Championship-size.
10) I bet Bo Pelini doesn’t coach at Youngstown State for more than 1 year.
11) Just to keep things cosmically balanced, the Pac-12 should add Colorado State and Utah State to become the Pac-14.
12) Notre Dame and BYU need to join a conference.
13) Boise State should be in a big boy conference.
14) TCU still has good reason to be upset.
15) I am available to be a member of the Playoff Selection Committee – just say’n.
16) Urban Meyer and Jim Harbaugh have the potential of being a modern day Woody Hayes and Bo Shembechler. And, that would be cool. (Although Woody and Bo had a secret admiration for each other – I’m not sure Urban and Jim will develop that.)
17) Washington Huskies v. Boise State Broncos is a GREAT Week 1 match-up for 2015.
18) Becoming eligible for bowl games again; getting scholarships back; and getting wins re-instated is no excuse for Penn State to not follow up on lessons learned from the Jerry Sandusky tragedy.
19) The SEC is still a powerful football conference – with or without an ESPN bias.
20) I know I’m a nerd, but, I like the Kirk Herbstreit / Lee Corso dynamics.
21) I know I’m a nerd, but, I hate the Lou Holtz / Mark May dynamics.
22) I’m a nerd.
23) The winner of the 2015 Heisman Trophy will not be on the list of leading candidates going into the season.
24) Oregon and Florida State will not be in the Playoffs next year.
25) Ohio State and Alabama will be in the Playoffs next year.
26) Mississippi State and Ole Miss will not be in the Playoff discussion late in the season again.
27) TCU and Baylor will be in the Playoff discussion late in the season again.
28) I was impressed with Cardale Jone’s Press Conference announcing he is returning to school. I hope he does get his degree.
29) The odds of me keeping this blog going are 100,000:1.
30) The odds of anyone actually reading this blog are even greater than that.