The College Football Crisis Management Award

The “Some Other Dude’s College Football Blog” spawned from a weekly college football promotion I was writing for Safe Harbor Consulting (SHC), a Management Consulting Firm specializing in crisis management.  SHC ran a two-year promotion recognizing the FBS Team that overcame the largest deficit to win its football game each week.  They call this the “College Football Crisis Management Award”.  SHC will still sponsor this award in 2015, but the weekly articles will be posted on SOD’s College Football Blog.  This is a fun promotion to write about.

In 2013, many of the weekly winners came from games played outside of the Power 5 conferences.  Most of the weekly, largest comebacks came from obscure, low profile games.  Still fun to write about, but not as big of a draw.  2014 saw a little bit of a change in that trend.

The 2014 weekly winners of the SHC College Football Crisis Management Award are shown in the Table below.

In 2014, 8 games, recognized in the 15 full weeks of FBS play, included teams from one of the Power 5 Conferences.  Some of these games were very notable and you probably remember watching a few of them.  With so many games being played at the FBS level, you can usually count on at least one game with a notable comeback, although you do get a few dud weeks along the way.

The largest comeback on the year occurred in Week 6 when Miami (OH) overcame a 27 point deficit to beat Massachusetts, 42 – 41.  Both teams came into the game 0 – 5, looking for their first win of the season.  The Minutemen seemed to have the game won, but, apparently, they weren’t 60-minute men.  This is what makes the promotion so much fun – every game has a chance to be recognized.

There were a few weeks where the largest comeback was from only 14 points down (Week 16 doesn’t count – there was only one game, Army/Navy).  And, in Week 13 a full 5 games tied for the weekly honor at that 14 point mark.  Interestingly enough, Florida State, one of the teams that made the 4-team playoff at the end of the year, was in contention for the honor, on what seemed to be every week, and won the award with their 21 point, come-from-behind victory over Louisville in Week 10.

SOD is honored to be able to carry this promotion in our blog next year.  If you want to check out last years’ articles you can find them by clicking on the links included below.

Week 1.  Week 2.  Week 3.  Week 4.  Week 5.  Week 6.  Week 7.  Week 8.  Week 9.  Week 10.  Week 11.  Week 12.  Week 13.  Week 14.  Week 15we.

Trivia Tuesday – Power 5 Conferences

In recent years, there has been a lot of shuffling of College Football Conferences. And, if you believe Some Other Dude, there is more yet to come as we advance upon the age of the Mega-Conferences. But, SOD wonders, how well do you know the history of the current Power 5 Conferences?

THE TRIVIA CHALLENGE

Name the original teams in each of the current Power 5 Conferences.

THE BUFFER ZONE

THE ANSWERS

The Atlantic Coast Conference.  Even though we appear to be headed to 16 team Mega-Conferences, back in history there was an even mega-er conference; the Southern Conference.  The Southern Conference, at one time, consisted of 23 teams and eventually splintered into other, smaller conferences.  One of those splinter conferences was the ACC which officially formed as a conference in 1953.  The 7 charter members of the ACC were: Clemson, Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, North Carolina State, South Carolina and Wake Forest.  Only South Carolina no longer calls the ACC home as they eventually joined the other splinter conference with former Southern Conference brethren.  Link to information source.

The Big 12.  The history of the Big 12 is a little more convoluted than that of the other conferences.  The Big 12 itself wasn’t formed until 1994 when teams from the Big 8 merged with teams from the Southwest Conference.  The Big 8 Conference was originally chartered in 1907 as the Missouri Valley Intercollegiate Athletic Association and eventually became known as the Big 6 and then grew up to become the Big 8.  The original members of this conference were: Iowa (two-timing with the Big Ten), Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska and Washington University in St. Louis.  Only Kansas remains as a current member of The Big 12.  Link to information source.  The Southwest Conference was first formed in 1912, consisting of: Arkansas, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Rice, Texas and Texas A&M.  Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas remain as current members of the Big 12.  Link to information source.

The Big Ten.  The name “The Big Ten” was actually not officially incorporated until 1987, but the conference referred to as the Big Ten has been around since 1905.  The original conference was made up of 7 teams in what was known as the “Intercollegiate Conference Athletic Association”.  In 1917, when the conference had expanded to 10 teams, it was labeled the “Big Ten” by members of the media.  The original members of this so-called Big Ten Conference were: Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Purdue, University of Chicago and Wisconsin.  Only the University of Chicago is not a member of that conference today.  Link to information source.

The Pac 12.  The Pac 12 Conference started off as a little seedling conference that eventually grew up into the Pac 12.  Forming in 1916 as the Pacific Coast Conference, its original members stood at only 4 schools: California, Oregon, Oregon Agricultural College (later known as Oregon State) and Washington.  All four schools still remain in the conference today.  Interestingly, Idaho and Montana were one time members of this conference and the conference was disbanded and re-assembled in 1959 due to a pay-for-play scandal.  The re-formed conference was called the Athletic Association of Western Universities, commonly known as the Big 5. After growing once again, the conference started being referred to as the Pacific 8 in 1964 and officially became the Pacific 8 in 1968, the Pac 10 in 1978 and the Pac 12 in 2011.  Link to information source.

The SEC.  The SEC preceded the ACC in splintering away from the huge Southern Conference when 13 schools left in 1932 to form their own conference.  The 13 schools that made up the first version of the Southeastern Conference were: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Kentucky, LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Sewanee (University of the South), Tennessee, Tulane and Vanderbilt.  Georgia Tech now resides in the ACC; Tulane, although still an FBS school is no longer a member of a Power 5 Conference; and, Sewanee, after having decided to de-emphasize sports in 1940, currently competes in Division III athletics.  Link to information source.

The NFL Combines and the Holes They Create

The NFL has invited over 300 draft eligible football players to its annual, pre-draft combine in Indianapolis, February 17 – 23.  Although this doesn’t tell the whole story, the list of invitees is a good place to start in identifying the talent that FBS schools have to replace going into the 2015 college football season.

SOD took a look at the teams that finished in the final AP Poll Top 10 to assess which teams might have the biggest challenges to overcome in a repeat visit the top based on this list of invitees.  Here is what SOD observed.

#1 Ohio State.  The Buckeyes have just 4 graduating seniors attending the NFL Combine.  As you would expect, all of the players invited were key contributors to their teams in 2014, and the Ohio State players are no different, but the four that the Buckeyes lose do not indicate that there will be gaping holes to fill in the 2015 roster.  This doesn’t bode well for the rest of the Big Ten and is a good indication that the Buckeyes will enter the 2015 season sitting at the top of the polls.

#2 Oregon.  There will be 7 ex-Ducks participating in the 2015 NFL Combines this year – not least of which will be Heisman Trophy winning, QB Marcus Mariota.  The Ducks also lose a couple offensive linemen and 4 defensive starters.  Not too many names on the list, but one huge hole to fill at QB.  That QB hole, however, is more than just talent; the leadership and character wrapped up in that Marcus Mariota package will also be hard to replace.  SOD doesn’t see Oregon falling too far down the polls, but the QB issue remains a big question mark.

#3 TCU.  Texas Christian will be represented by 5 players at the Combines this year, including 2 juniors.  The Horned Frogs lose 2 DBs, 1 LB, 1 OL and 1 RB.  All in all, not too big a hit for the Frogs who also come back to 2015 with a big ‘ole chip on their shoulder.  It looks like, using this as an indicator, that TCU has every reason to believe they can make another run at the playoffs in 2015 and, hopefully, this time, not be left out of the party.

#4 Alabama.  Alabama sends 11 players to the NFL Combine including 3 juniors.  ‘Bama’s list of attendees includes several players from skilled positions, including QB Blake Simms, RBs TJ Yeldon and Jalston Fowler, and WRs Amari Cooper, Chris Jones and DeAndrew White.  Yes, the Tide did just sign the #1 ranked Recruiting class; yes, Alabama does have a deep roster; and, yes, Nick Saban is a master at filling holes every year – but, it just seems that replacing experienced talent with inexperienced talent – especially in the skilled positions, might eventually catch up to the Tide and, if not move them out of the Top 10, maybe move them out of the now-all-important Top 4.  I wouldn’t bet against the Tide in 2015, but it also wouldn’t surprise me if they have some trouble replacing all of the talent they have recently lost to the NFL.

#t5 Michigan State.  The Spartans send 6 prospects to the NFL Combines including 1 junior.  The Spartans will be losing 2 DBs, 2 WR, 1 RB and 1 LB off of their 2014 roster.  Not too big of a hit.  The Spartans’ issue is not so much what they are losing, but the fact that the team that hovers above them in the Big Ten also brings back the majority of their starting lineup, as well.  Even so, the Spartans’ roster should keep them in the pre-season Top 10 going into 2015.

#t5  Florida State.  The Seminoles have placed 12 men into the 2015 NFL Combine including 5 early declarers.  A pretty huge hit to a regular season, undefeated team that got little respect for that accomplishment.  Florida State’s losses include a Heisman Trophy holding QB, in Jamies Winston, and a darn good RB in Karlos Williams.  The Seminoles also will be losing 4 from their offensive line and 2 from their defensive line.  The Seminoles did have a highly ranked recruiting class, but this is a lot of talent to lose – too much, SOD believes, to even sniff at next years’ playoffs.

#7  Baylor.  Like Oregon, Baylor’s issue is not in the number of holes created, but in the significance of the hole created at the QB position.  The Bears only have 4 players participating in the 2015 NFL Combine but one of them is super-star QB Bryce Petty.  Baylor does have the advantage (or, perhaps, disadvantage) of a relatively weak schedule again in 2015 but the fate of the Bears in the rankings may lie in the hands of the new QB.

#8  Georgia Tech.  The Yellow Jackets have two WRs participating in the NFL Combine – not a position too heavily relied upon in the Georgia Tech offense.  But, the Yellow Jackets finish in the 2014 rankings is not as much a result of the talent on their roster as it is in the system they run in Atlanta.  Georgia Tech is the kind of team that earns its way into the top ten on the field of play – seldom do they make the pre-season top 10 based on expectations.  SOD suspects the same will be true in 2015.

#9  Georgia.  The Bulldogs, the yearly enigma of college football, will have 5 players participating in the NFL Combine this year, including RB Todd Gurley.  The Bulldogs have successful and experienced running backs in the fold that have already proven they can do just fine without Mr. Gurley – even as talented as he may be.  So, Georgia does not lose too much from their roster and can be expected to be ranked highly in the pre-season rankings.  If history is any indication, however, you can almost as surely count on them losing a game or two they are not expected to during the year, knocking them down a peg or two.

 #10  UCLA.  UCLA is another 2014 Top 10 team who loses its star QB to the NFL in 2015.  That fact alone always makes a pre-season ranking hard to predict and hard to get right.  Besides QB Brett Hundley, the Bruins will have four defensive players participating in the NFL Combine.  Once again, not too big a loss in terms of numbers, but a question mark with who replaces the signal caller.  UCLA probably starts 2015 outside of the Top 10 but should have chances to play their way back into it as the season goes on.  The Pac-12 will be an interesting conference to follow in 2015 with so much turnover in the QB position.

So, the combines begin in less than a week and some of us will be watching closely to see how our favorite sons perform and project where they might land in the NFL.  Meanwhile, College Football’s Spring Practices are not far behind when the teams that have holes to fill start auditioning potential replacements.  Fun for everyone.

The Rich Getting Richer

National Signing Day, the first day High School seniors can officially commit to the college they will attend, is just around the corner, Wednesday, February 4.  If you have found yourself to this blog that is probably something you already know and are looking forward to.

No real surprises are expected, as regards to the top classes; there may be a few individual commit surprises, but not enough to drastically change the class rankings.  In some people’s minds it’s just more of, “the rich getting richer”.  Some Other Dude thinks of it more as, “the rich staying rich”.  One of the downfalls of signing such elite classes year after year is the resulting high number, relatively speaking, of early declarers into the NFL Draft each year – so, SOD thinks of it more as replacing your riches as opposed to adding to them.

If you look at the Class Rankings from any number of Recruiting Web Sites, you see the same, usual suspects at the top of the list.  The ESPN Top 10, for example, lists, in order from 1 – 10: Alabama, Florida State, Clemson, Georgia, Tennessee, USC, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Texas, and Notre Dame.  All elite programs, maintaining their elite status.  To no one’s surprise, 6 out of those 10 teams finished 2014 in the AP Top 25 rankings.  Just the rich staying rich.

So, it seems to SOD that this pattern of Top Classes stays pretty consistent from year to year.  This would support the feeling that the elite schools in college football stay pretty constant from year to year.  I wonder, thinks SOD, am I influenced by recent events, or does history bear this out?  If we grouped college football programs into classifications, such as: Elite Programs; Near Elite Programs; Middle of the Road Programs; Below Average Programs; and Bottom Dwellers, how hard is it for one program to move from one grouping to another, and, how often does that occur?

Just relying on SOD’s instinct, it seems there are not that many programs that have moved into Elite or Near Elite status in recent history.  Just go down this years’ Final AP Poll and put a label on each program and how long they’ve been in that classification.  Go ahead, I’ll wait.

SOD, using only his instinct and, rather challenged, memory, labeled the Top 10 this way:

• Ohio State – Elite for a long time
• Oregon – Relatively new Elite
• TCU –Near Elite, moving upwards
• Alabama – Elite for a long time
• Michigan State – Moves between Elite and Near Elite
• Florida State – Moves between Elite and Near Elite – Mostly Elite
• Baylor – Newly Near Elite, moving upwards
• Georgia Tech – Fluctuates through all categories
• UCLA – Moves between Elite and Near Elite

Interested to see if facts support perception, SOD found this web page that lists the total number of appearances each school has in the final AP Poll throughout the years.

At the top of the list is Michigan, with 57 appearances.  The Wolverines have fallen on hard times of late but have had a long enough history of being an elite program that it is going to take more than a few years of mediocrity to knock them from this group.  And, Jim Harbaugh might have some magic to help get them back into the club.

Tied for 2^nd with 54 appearances are Oklahoma and Ohio State.  Elite and elite, although Oklahoma is at risk of slipping a bit if they don’t get back into Top 10 levels soon.

And, as you continue down the list there are no real surprises – one elite program after another.  Those with a deep history of being top programs are the same ones that are tops today – for the most part.  Certainly you have programs that have periods of mediocrity sprinkled in, but, you wouldn’t be surprised to see them bounce back to the top soon.  For instance, programs like Tennessee, which hasn’t had a Top 10 team for some time, weighs in at #9 all time.  The Volunteers haven’t finished in the final AP Poll since 2007, when they were ranked #12, and haven’t been in the Top 10 since 2001 (#4).  Tennessee is slipping down the list, but, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see them back in the polls in the near future, especially given their Top 10 ranking in this year’s recruiting class.

This list does suggest that some of today’s better programs are new members to the Elite and Near Elite category, as SOD suspected.  TCU, a team that probably deserved a spot in this years’ playoff, ranks 29 on the all-time list.  Oregon, an elite program today, ranks only 39 on the list.  The Ducks have only 15 appearances in the Final AP Poll, 14 of them since 1994 and 11 appearances since 2000.  So, the Ducks are proof that a program can move up through the classifications – but, they are that rare breed.

And, there are programs, like Georgia Tech, that seem to enjoy a roller-coaster ride through the classifications.  The Yellow Jackets have 25 appearances in the final rankings scattered throughout the decades, never staying too long and never being absent for too long.

So, let’s do one final comparison; let’s compare the Top 25 in the Final AP Poll for the decade years against 2014.

• The 2010 Final AP Poll included 11 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll.
• The 2000 Final AP Poll included 10 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll.
• The 1990 Final AP Poll included 6 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll.
• The 1980 Final AP Poll included 7 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll.
• The 1970 Final AP Poll included 6 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll
• The 1960 Final AP Poll included 7 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll.
• The 1950 Final AP Poll included 4 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll.
• The 1940 Final AP Poll included 3 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll.

NOTE:  The 1940 – 1980 Polls only ranked the Top 20 teams.

So, if you go back far enough, the list of elite teams changes a bit more drastically, but, over the past 50 years or so, it appears that it is rather difficult for teams to move up on the elite program scale.  But, programs like Oregon and Baylor show that it can be done.  And, there are other programs, like Rutgers for instance, that have slowly moved up from Bottom Dwellers to Middle of the Road that could be on the precipice of Near Elite or higher, especially given the recent change in conference affiliation.

It is a slowly changing landscape, but, if you root for one of those teams on the journey, it can be a fun ride.

Future Schedules and Their Impacts on Making the Playoffs

Yes, Some Other Dude (SOD) was listening when Jeff Long, Chair of the FBS Playoff Selection Committee kept insisting that the Committee was not in the business of “sending messages” when making their selections, but, I think some messages, intended or not, sublimely or otherwise, were received loud and clear. And, one of the loudest messages SOD heard was, unless you are going to go undefeated, you better have a good out-of-conference schedule to play.

I know that we only have a population of 1 selection process cycle to evaluate and this thing is still morphing, but, it seems to me, that strength of schedule does matter and, especially, the strength or weakness of those out-of-conference games you play.

SOD believes that by going undefeated, ala Florida State this past year, you can overcome a relatively weak schedule, but, once you lose a game, even if the game you lose is to a very good football team, your out-of-conference schedule is going to be scrutinized and have an impact on your ranking. Arguably, both Baylor and TCU are evidence of such in 2014.

Ohio State was, at that time, a controversial pick as the 4th seed in the playoffs, largely based on their “poor loss” to a mediocre Virginia Tech squad. This loss was widely accepted as the worse loss of any team in consideration of a playoff spot. But, how can you fault a team for scheduling, not just a Power 5 opponent, but a Power 5 opponent with a history of being good? Could it be that a loss to a down-year Virginia Tech is less damaging than an out-of-conference schedule made up of SMU, Northwestern State and Buffalo, as in Baylor’s case, or Samford and SMU (I’ll give them Minnesota as being okay) in TCU’s case? Not that OSU’s out of conference schedule of the aforementioned Virginia Tech, Navy, Kent State and Cincinnati was significantly better, but, it at least included all FBS schools.

So, SOD decided to take a look in the future to see if this could possibly be a factor in upcoming seasons. Using FB Schedules.com as my information source, I do see evidence of some tougher schedules ahead, but, I also see some suspect scheduling in the near future that could damage some teams’ chances at one of the four playoff spots in closely contended races.

In particular, Baylor could find themselves in the same predicament with their current future (oximoronic, I know) schedules. Baylor’s 2015 out-of-conference schedule consists of SMU, Lamar and Rice. Really?! The 2016 schedule currently stands as Northwestern State, SMU and Rice. No better. At least in 2017 and 2018 they get Duke on the schedule, but these years also include Liberty and UTSA. And, embarrassingly, Baylor’s 2019 out-of-conference schedule has them playing Incarnate Word, UTSA and Rice! Now, SOD does not know how much flexibility there is to change all of this, but, if Baylor hopes to vie for a spot in any upcoming playoffs, they might want to make some changes.

By comparison, take a look at Big 12 conference rival Texas’s upcoming schedules. Texas is scheduled to play Notre Dame, Rice and California in 2015; Notre Dame, UTEP and California in 2016; Maryland, UCF and USC in 2017; and, Maryland, Tulsa and USC in 2018. Two Power 5 teams and a cupcake each year – MUCH BETTER than 3 cupcakes. Beyond 2018, the incomplete Texas schedules currently include the likes of LSU, Arkansas, Ohio State, and Michigan. Now this is scheduling! And, this is what SOD hopes the Playoff System entices other schools to do, as well.

All in all, there are still many holes to fill in for lots of Power 5 teams; still plenty of time to “toughen” up their schedules; but there are still too many patsies on too many schedules for SOD’s liking. The SEC, as a whole, I think, has a rather soft out-of-conference slate collectively. I think they deserve to do much better if they wish to continue to wave that banner of best conference in the land. Along with Texas, USC’s future schedules look more like that of a team with hopes of great accomplishments. This is the type of scheduling other schools should emulate.

Now. SOD does believe that there is still room for some scheduling creativity or exceptions to the rule. For example, SOD thinks, regardless of what league they are in or how good of a year they are having, scheduling any of the Military Academies should be encouraged and not count against you – just limit it to one a year. SOD also appreciates the value in scheduling regional schools, every now and then. For example, Virginia or Virginia Tech scheduling Old Dominion, William & Mary or Richmond every now and then can be forgiven – just don’t schedule two or more in the same year as Virginia Tech has done for 2018.

And, SOD does understand that schedules are set years in advance and that there is a science to the art of scheduling. It is more than just wanting to toughen up your schedule; it is a matter of availability, timing and coordination. But, SOD does want to see a trending away from so many “easy win” games for teams that have playoff aspirations.

In general, SOD hopes there are more inter-Power 5 games in out-of-conference schedules. If you can’t fill up your schedule with teams from other Power 5 conferences, you should, at least, go for other FBS schools. Although FCS schools do realize branding and financial benefits from games against FBS opponents, SOD wouldn’t mind seeing these games become a thing of the past.

And, there are some changes afoot. The B1G Ten is moving to a 9 game conference schedule in 2016 (same as the Pac-12 has today), resulting in 1 less out-of-conference game for each team. Other conferences may soon follow. Fewer out-of-conference games should result in fewer cupcake games.

Like so many other things in life, we will just have to wait and see. SOD predicts that the future schedules, as they are today, are bound to change, especially those that are 2 or more years out. I certainly hope so. Tougher games in the out-of-conference weeks to start a season should lead to more excitement and provide more common fodder by which to evaluate and rank teams at the end of the season when determining the playoff contenders. No team should be left out of a playoff spot because their schedule was too easy.

What do you think, Baylor and TCU? Regardless, I think the Big 12 having a Championship would also help your cause.

30 Random Thoughts for the First Post on a New College Football Blog

1) The last thing the world needs is another blog on College Football.
2) Especially, a College Football blog written by a schmuck with no business writing a College Football Blog.
3) Starting a new College Football Blog on January 23 is about as stupid as it gets.
4) Since Braxton Miller has already graduated and does not have to sit out a year if he transfers – I think he should transfer.
5) Remember that Russell Wilson did number 4.
6) Even though almost every analyst I hear is saying Marcus Mariota is a can’t miss NFL prospect – I think he can miss.
7) I hope Jameis Winston grows up.
8) I bet the Baltimore Ravens don’t trade up to get Jameis Winston in the draft – or ever.
9) I think the Big 12 is making a Big mistake if it doesn’t expand to Championship-size.
10) I bet Bo Pelini doesn’t coach at Youngstown State for more than 1 year.
11) Just to keep things cosmically balanced, the Pac-12 should add Colorado State and Utah State to become the Pac-14.
12) Notre Dame and BYU need to join a conference.
13) Boise State should be in a big boy conference.
14) TCU still has good reason to be upset.
15) I am available to be a member of the Playoff Selection Committee – just say’n.
16) Urban Meyer and Jim Harbaugh have the potential of being a modern day Woody Hayes and Bo Shembechler. And, that would be cool. (Although Woody and Bo had a secret admiration for each other – I’m not sure Urban and Jim will develop that.)
17) Washington Huskies v. Boise State Broncos is a GREAT Week 1 match-up for 2015.
18) Becoming eligible for bowl games again; getting scholarships back; and getting wins re-instated is no excuse for Penn State to not follow up on lessons learned from the Jerry Sandusky tragedy.
19) The SEC is still a powerful football conference – with or without an ESPN bias.
20) I know I’m a nerd, but, I like the Kirk Herbstreit / Lee Corso dynamics.
21) I know I’m a nerd, but, I hate the Lou Holtz / Mark May dynamics.
22) I’m a nerd.
23) The winner of the 2015 Heisman Trophy will not be on the list of leading candidates going into the season.
24) Oregon and Florida State will not be in the Playoffs next year.
25) Ohio State and Alabama will be in the Playoffs next year.
26) Mississippi State and Ole Miss will not be in the Playoff discussion late in the season again.
27) TCU and Baylor will be in the Playoff discussion late in the season again.
28) I was impressed with Cardale Jone’s Press Conference announcing he is returning to school. I hope he does get his degree.
29) The odds of me keeping this blog going are 100,000:1.
30) The odds of anyone actually reading this blog are even greater than that.