2015 Week 1 – Too Soon?

So, here it is, February 12; Week 1 of the 2015 College Football Season is still over 6 months away, and, I wonder, is it too early to start looking forward to the Week 1 schedule? … HELL, NO!

Besides, what else do good, respectable, young college football fans have to do? Well, I might not be good, respectable or young, but I am a college football fan, so, here goes – the look ahead to Week 1.

The 2015 FBS College Football Schedule kicks off on a Thursday Night, September 3, with a couple intriguing match-ups.

The Carolinas, North and South will tangle at a, somewhat, neutral site, Bank of America Stadium, in Charlotte, NC, to get things started. Both teams are trying to get back into the thick of things in their respective conferences and this game should be a good indication of which team is poised to make a move. Steve Spurrier will be debuting a new signal caller in this game and the Tar Heel defense is a tough first-game assignment. The Tar Heels are currently ranked #35 in the ESPN PreSeason FPI Rankings and the Gamecocks weigh in at #40.

Jim Harbaugh will debut as the Head Coach for Michigan in Utah as the Wolverines try to pay back the Utes for embarrassing them in the Big House in 2014. A pretty tough assignment, to go on the road for your first game with a new program, and Wolverine expectations will be through the roof, but the Utes will be in no mode to be gracious hosts. An interesting match-up, indeed. Michigan currently stands at #28 in the ESPN PreSeason FPI Rankings while the Utes hold down the 38th spot.

After a nice double-dose of intriguing games on an opening Thursday night, football fans will get a couple of days rest to prepare themselves for the first Saturday of the new season and a handful of additional games that will merit some attention.

After leaving the program in 2013, Chris Petersen will head back to Boise State with his new team, the Washington Huskies. The Broncos will be anxious to show that his old, non-Power 5 program is still better than his new, PAC-12 squad. There will be a new gunslinger for the Broncos tossing footballs on the blue turf, but Boise State returns a good team coming off of their Fiesta Bowl victory over another PAC-12 team in #10 Arizona. Boise State is likely to be ranked in the Top 25 and Washington is likely to be one of those, “also receiving votes” teams coming into the game. Both teams will enter with a chip on their shoulder and one team will have it knocked off. Boise State is currently ranked #31 in the ESPN PreSeason FPI Rankings and Washington sits at #46.

The first Saturday also has Virginia travelling coast to coast to complete the home and home series against UCLA. The Cavaliers played a close, but losing game against the Briuns in their Virginia home in 2014. Going out west, however, the Cavaliers will be facing a Briuns’ squad that has a new QB at the helm, replacing the early departed Brett Hundley. It’s not easy going coast to coast for your first game of the season, as UCLA discovered last year; it will be interesting to see how this game kicks off the 2015 season for both teams. UCLA is currently ranked #12 in the ESPN PreSeason FPI Rankings while Virginia is ranked #56.

In what might be dubbed the Brainiac Bowl, the B1G Ten’s academic leader, Northwestern will make a trip out west to meet the PAC-12’s academic leader, Stanford. The Cardinal is likely to be a heavy favorite in this game, but an interesting matchup nonetheless between two of the finer educational institutions that happen to also field pretty good football teams. Stanford sits at #17 in the ESPN PreSeason FPI Rankings and Northwestern is down at #68.

The Badgers of Wisconsin are proving that they like to start off their seasons with a bang and do not shy away from tough scheduling challenges. Last year the Badgers started things off in a high-profile game against LSU, blowing a big lead in eventually losing the game, and will start off the 2015 season back in SEC country against the reigning SEC Champs in Alabama. The Crimson Tide does turnover a large portion of their starting lineup, but this seems to be something that Alabama does well. A good test for both teams to start the new year and a game that is sure to get most of the first Week spotlight going into the season. Alabama is currently ranked #2 in the ESPN PreSeason FPI Rankings and the Badgers fall in at #36. But, preseason polls are likely to have both teams in the Top 25.

In another intriguing contest with an SEC powerhouse, Louisville squares off against Auburn in the Georgia Dome. The Tigers will be replacing Nick Marshall at QB while Louisville brings in an experienced Will Gardner. Another early season measuring stick for two programs poised to make a run at their respective conference championships. Auburn is currently ranked #18 in the ESPN PreSeason FPI Rankings and the Cardinals sit at #44.

In a contest between two of the better teams in two of the best conferences, Arizona State and Texas A&M match up in NRG Stadium in Houston.  This is another good match-up that could be an early indication of which team is ready to vie for a top spot in their respective conferences.  Texas A&M is currently ranked #11 in the ESPN PreSeason FPI Rankings and Arizona State is a respectable #20.  All in all, a pretty good Week 1 for the SEC West top teams to send a signal to the rest of the college football world that they are still the cream of the crop.

And, the first week of the season is capped off with a Monday Night affair between the Buckeyes of Ohio State and the Virginia Tech Hokies. Last year, the Hokies hung an albatross around the Buckeyes’ necks almost big enough to keep them out of the playoffs. Ohio State overcame that “bad” loss on their journey to the National Championship, but will be looking to avenge the loss in Blacksburg. One thing for sure is – whichever QB is under center for the Buckeyes this time, it will be one with a lot more experience than JT Barrett had going into last years’ game.  Ohio State currently sits atop of the ESPN PreSeason FPI Rankings at #1 while Virginia Tech is ranked #25.

So, yes, it is over half a year away, but the intrigue these games promise will only grow brighter and brighter as the season gets closer and closer. There will also be some interest in games that appear less fairly matched as the nation watches to see how new QBs perform under center – like the Eastern Washington vs Oregon game in which Oregon’s new QB just might be Eastern’s old QB; and, the Texas State vs Florida State game in which famous Jameis will likely be watching from an NFL camp somewhere.

For now, however, its nearing time for college football fans to go into their summer hibernation, dreaming of the sounds of whistles to ring in an interesting Week 1.

A Look Back on the 2014 5-Star Recruits

You know, it wasn’t that long ago when most of us would not have been aware tomorrow is Signing Day for High School seniors to sign their Letters of Intent (LOI) with the colleges and universities they planned to attend in the coming fall. My how things have changed.

Now, there are subscription web-sites with 100s of thousands of subscribers, chat rooms full of discussions, rankings of stars all over the place and television stations with all day coverage of the faxes coming in. Just amazing!

And, this changes the landscape a little bit. The attention some of these high school kids get is both phenomenal and disgusting. There are thousands of people following their every move on social networking sites. There are press conferences set up in high school gyms and the, sometimes infamous, selection of the hat. Just unbelievable. And, Some Other Dude is caught up in it just like the rest of you.

One interesting phenomena, I think, that comes out of this is the “flavor of the month” aspect. We follow our teams’ recruiting efforts; see who made verbal commitments and how many stars they wear. We know the names and statistics for hundreds of kids and have seen video for dozens of them. We have high hopes for many who have yet to even enroll in the school, yet alone played one down of college football. Then, signing day comes, we get all excited, re-read the profiles of the kids who did sign the dotted line and then start looking at next year’s prospects – the new flavors.

Then, the kids who were in the spotlights the year before get red-shirted, get injured, can’t adjust to the new environment, or are just buried in the depth chart and are, so it seems, quickly forgotten. We seem to expect the new year’s recruits to unseat last years’ recruits just because they didn’t immediately become superstars, or even starters. And, because we started following these kids back in their junior years in high school, if they don’t start on the college team before they are juniors there, we forget about them completely and write them off as busts. Funny how that works.

So, SOD wonders, how many 5 stars actually make a big splash on campus their freshmen year? Lets take a look at last year’s class.

According to ESPN, the 2014 Recruiting Class included 15, 5 star recruits.

The number 1 recruit, RB Leonard Fournette lived up to the hype and, actually, did make a splash with LSU. Leonard carried the ball 187 times for 1,034 yards with 10 TDs and had 7 receptions for 127 yards. A good year that ended with a 143 yards rushing effort against Notre Dame in the Music City Bowl. No one will be forgetting Leonard Fournette any time soon. Splash.

The number 2 ranked recruit was Jabrill Peppers, a DB who signed with Michigan. Jabrill had a tough first year at Michigan. He played sparingly in the first four games before being sidelined by injury and applying for a medical red-shirt. Jabrill totaled 8 tackles in 2014. No splash.

Coming in at number 3 was Cameron Robinson an OT who signed with Alabama. Offensive line is typically a position that requires time to make the first team on the depth chart, and often, those recruits who are most easily forgotten. Cam, however, lived up to his billing and started in all 14 of Alabama’s games. Splash.

Number 4 was DE Myles Garrett who signed with Texas A & M. Myles had a terrific freshmen year for the Aggies leading the team in QB sacks (11.0), tackles for loss (12.5) and QB hurries (9) while also being 2nd amongst defensive linemen with 50 tackles. Splash.

Number 5 was Andrew Brown, a DT signing with Virginia. Andrew was one of four true freshmen to see playing time with the Cavaliers, appearing in 6 games, including the final 4 games. Andrew amassed 4 tackles in his playing time. It certainly is an accomplishment for a true freshman to find the playing field, but, there was no splash here.

The number 6 ranked recruit, according to ESPN, was Da’Shawn Hand, a DE who signed with Alabama. As a true freshmen, Da’Shawn played in 9 games and recorded 7 total tackles (4 unassisted, 3 assisted). Again, quite an accomplishment to find playing time on a team that competed for the National Championship, but not a splash … yet.

Number 7 in the class of 2014 was Speedy Noil, listed as an ATH, who signed with Texas A&M. Like fellow Texas A&M signee, Myles Garrett, Speedy had a terrific first year for the Aggies. Speedy performed as a receiver and return man throughout the year. Speedy led the Aggies in all-purpose yards, punt return yards and kickoff return yards despite missing a game due to injury. Speedy amassed 559 yards on 44 receptions with 5 TDs; 575 yards on 24 kickoff returns (24.0 avg); and, 178 yards on 14 punt returns (12.7 avg). All in all, a nice splash.

The number 8 recruit was Tony Brown, a CB who signed with Alabama (man, I’m beginning to see a pattern here – the SEC killed it!). Tony played in 13 games, starting 2 (games 4 and 5). Tony recorded 10 total tackles (7 ua, 3 a). A good start to a promising career, but not quite splash status.

Coming in at number 9 was Adoree’ Jackson, a WR signing with USC. Adoree’ played in all 13 Trojan games, starting the last 9. Adoree’ had 10 total receptions for 138 yards and 3 TDs; 1 rush for 5 yards; 2 punt returns for 12 yards; and, 23 kick returns for 684 yards. Adoree’ showed lots of promise and, indeed, made a splash, especially with his kick return abilities.

Rounding out the top 10 was Quin Blanding, a S who signed with Virginia (lots of repeat team names at the top of this list). Quin was another one of the four true freshmen to start a game for Virginia and, in fact, was one of 10 Cavaliers to start all 12 games. Quin finished the year with 123 tackles which ranked him #2 in the ACC and #12 nationally. And, Quin led the team with 3 interceptions in the 2014 campaign. Big splash.

The number 11 recruit was Jalen Tabor, a CB signee with Florida. Jalon played in all 12 of Florida’s games in 2014 recording 31 total tackles (22 ua, 9 a) and 1 interception on the year. Jalen had a nice start to his career with Florida, worthy of splash status.

Number 12 in the class was yet another Alabama signee, ATH Bo Scarbrough. Although Bo signed with Alabama, he was not cleared to enroll in the fall due to some academic eligibility issues. Bo worked on these issues and was enrolled in Alabama in January and attended Bama practices leading up to the Sugar Bowl. No splash in 2014, but just wait.

The number 13 recruit was Raekwon McMillen, an ILB who signed with Ohio State. Raekwon played in 13 of the 14 games Ohio State played in 2014, having to sit out the Alabama contest in the Sugar Bowl. Although Raekwon did not start in any games, Ohio State has pretty good depth at linebacker, he did contribute significantly with 54 total tackles (30 ua, 24 a). Raekwon also recorded 2.5 sacks and 6.5 tackles for loss. Raekwon left no doubt in anybody’s mind that he will be a force to be reckoned with on the Ohio State defense – worthy of a splash.

Number 14 on the list was Lorenzo Carter, listed as a DE signing by Georgia. Lorenzo actually played as a linebacker for the Bulldogs, playing in all 13 games and starting in the last 5 games. Lorenzo recorded 41 total tackles (18 ua, 23 a), getting better as the season went on. Lorenzo also recorded 4.5 sacks and 7.0 tackles for loss, and he is responsible for 1 fumble recovered. Lorenzo made a splash on the Georgia defense.

And, finally, the number 15 and last of the five star recruits from the class of 2014 – and, Alabama’s fifth signee from this class, was CB Marlon Humphrey. Marlon happens to play a position that is deep at Alabama. Fellow CB recruit Tony Brown was able to find some playing time, but Marlon did not find the field in 2014. Things look good for Bama in the future with concerns to their defensive backfield, but no splashes were made in 2014 with their 5-star CB recruits.

So, all-in-all, the 2014 5-star recruits were shining pretty bright. SOD counts 9 recruits who made a splash for their teams in their true freshmen year. Two 5-stars did not find the field in 2014 – 1 red-shirt and 1 academically ineligible. And, another 5-star was injured and applied for a medical red-shirt.

But, let’s not give up on our other recruits who have yet to make the starting roster. As we celebrate the incoming class – poised to sign their LOIs tomorrow – let’s keep the love for those young men we followed so closely in 2014, 13, 12 and, in some cases, even 2011.

Have fun tomorrow and good luck with your signing class.

The Rich Getting Richer

National Signing Day, the first day High School seniors can officially commit to the college they will attend, is just around the corner, Wednesday, February 4.  If you have found yourself to this blog that is probably something you already know and are looking forward to.

No real surprises are expected, as regards to the top classes; there may be a few individual commit surprises, but not enough to drastically change the class rankings.  In some people’s minds it’s just more of, “the rich getting richer”.  Some Other Dude thinks of it more as, “the rich staying rich”.  One of the downfalls of signing such elite classes year after year is the resulting high number, relatively speaking, of early declarers into the NFL Draft each year – so, SOD thinks of it more as replacing your riches as opposed to adding to them.

If you look at the Class Rankings from any number of Recruiting Web Sites, you see the same, usual suspects at the top of the list.  The ESPN Top 10, for example, lists, in order from 1 – 10: Alabama, Florida State, Clemson, Georgia, Tennessee, USC, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Texas, and Notre Dame.  All elite programs, maintaining their elite status.  To no one’s surprise, 6 out of those 10 teams finished 2014 in the AP Top 25 rankings.  Just the rich staying rich.

So, it seems to SOD that this pattern of Top Classes stays pretty consistent from year to year.  This would support the feeling that the elite schools in college football stay pretty constant from year to year.  I wonder, thinks SOD, am I influenced by recent events, or does history bear this out?  If we grouped college football programs into classifications, such as: Elite Programs; Near Elite Programs; Middle of the Road Programs; Below Average Programs; and Bottom Dwellers, how hard is it for one program to move from one grouping to another, and, how often does that occur?

Just relying on SOD’s instinct, it seems there are not that many programs that have moved into Elite or Near Elite status in recent history.  Just go down this years’ Final AP Poll and put a label on each program and how long they’ve been in that classification.  Go ahead, I’ll wait.

SOD, using only his instinct and, rather challenged, memory, labeled the Top 10 this way:

• Ohio State – Elite for a long time
• Oregon – Relatively new Elite
• TCU –Near Elite, moving upwards
• Alabama – Elite for a long time
• Michigan State – Moves between Elite and Near Elite
• Florida State – Moves between Elite and Near Elite – Mostly Elite
• Baylor – Newly Near Elite, moving upwards
• Georgia Tech – Fluctuates through all categories
• UCLA – Moves between Elite and Near Elite

Interested to see if facts support perception, SOD found this web page that lists the total number of appearances each school has in the final AP Poll throughout the years.

At the top of the list is Michigan, with 57 appearances.  The Wolverines have fallen on hard times of late but have had a long enough history of being an elite program that it is going to take more than a few years of mediocrity to knock them from this group.  And, Jim Harbaugh might have some magic to help get them back into the club.

Tied for 2^nd with 54 appearances are Oklahoma and Ohio State.  Elite and elite, although Oklahoma is at risk of slipping a bit if they don’t get back into Top 10 levels soon.

And, as you continue down the list there are no real surprises – one elite program after another.  Those with a deep history of being top programs are the same ones that are tops today – for the most part.  Certainly you have programs that have periods of mediocrity sprinkled in, but, you wouldn’t be surprised to see them bounce back to the top soon.  For instance, programs like Tennessee, which hasn’t had a Top 10 team for some time, weighs in at #9 all time.  The Volunteers haven’t finished in the final AP Poll since 2007, when they were ranked #12, and haven’t been in the Top 10 since 2001 (#4).  Tennessee is slipping down the list, but, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see them back in the polls in the near future, especially given their Top 10 ranking in this year’s recruiting class.

This list does suggest that some of today’s better programs are new members to the Elite and Near Elite category, as SOD suspected.  TCU, a team that probably deserved a spot in this years’ playoff, ranks 29 on the all-time list.  Oregon, an elite program today, ranks only 39 on the list.  The Ducks have only 15 appearances in the Final AP Poll, 14 of them since 1994 and 11 appearances since 2000.  So, the Ducks are proof that a program can move up through the classifications – but, they are that rare breed.

And, there are programs, like Georgia Tech, that seem to enjoy a roller-coaster ride through the classifications.  The Yellow Jackets have 25 appearances in the final rankings scattered throughout the decades, never staying too long and never being absent for too long.

So, let’s do one final comparison; let’s compare the Top 25 in the Final AP Poll for the decade years against 2014.

• The 2010 Final AP Poll included 11 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll.
• The 2000 Final AP Poll included 10 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll.
• The 1990 Final AP Poll included 6 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll.
• The 1980 Final AP Poll included 7 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll.
• The 1970 Final AP Poll included 6 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll
• The 1960 Final AP Poll included 7 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll.
• The 1950 Final AP Poll included 4 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll.
• The 1940 Final AP Poll included 3 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll.

NOTE:  The 1940 – 1980 Polls only ranked the Top 20 teams.

So, if you go back far enough, the list of elite teams changes a bit more drastically, but, over the past 50 years or so, it appears that it is rather difficult for teams to move up on the elite program scale.  But, programs like Oregon and Baylor show that it can be done.  And, there are other programs, like Rutgers for instance, that have slowly moved up from Bottom Dwellers to Middle of the Road that could be on the precipice of Near Elite or higher, especially given the recent change in conference affiliation.

It is a slowly changing landscape, but, if you root for one of those teams on the journey, it can be a fun ride.

30 Random Thoughts for the First Post on a New College Football Blog

1) The last thing the world needs is another blog on College Football.
2) Especially, a College Football blog written by a schmuck with no business writing a College Football Blog.
3) Starting a new College Football Blog on January 23 is about as stupid as it gets.
4) Since Braxton Miller has already graduated and does not have to sit out a year if he transfers – I think he should transfer.
5) Remember that Russell Wilson did number 4.
6) Even though almost every analyst I hear is saying Marcus Mariota is a can’t miss NFL prospect – I think he can miss.
7) I hope Jameis Winston grows up.
8) I bet the Baltimore Ravens don’t trade up to get Jameis Winston in the draft – or ever.
9) I think the Big 12 is making a Big mistake if it doesn’t expand to Championship-size.
10) I bet Bo Pelini doesn’t coach at Youngstown State for more than 1 year.
11) Just to keep things cosmically balanced, the Pac-12 should add Colorado State and Utah State to become the Pac-14.
12) Notre Dame and BYU need to join a conference.
13) Boise State should be in a big boy conference.
14) TCU still has good reason to be upset.
15) I am available to be a member of the Playoff Selection Committee – just say’n.
16) Urban Meyer and Jim Harbaugh have the potential of being a modern day Woody Hayes and Bo Shembechler. And, that would be cool. (Although Woody and Bo had a secret admiration for each other – I’m not sure Urban and Jim will develop that.)
17) Washington Huskies v. Boise State Broncos is a GREAT Week 1 match-up for 2015.
18) Becoming eligible for bowl games again; getting scholarships back; and getting wins re-instated is no excuse for Penn State to not follow up on lessons learned from the Jerry Sandusky tragedy.
19) The SEC is still a powerful football conference – with or without an ESPN bias.
20) I know I’m a nerd, but, I like the Kirk Herbstreit / Lee Corso dynamics.
21) I know I’m a nerd, but, I hate the Lou Holtz / Mark May dynamics.
22) I’m a nerd.
23) The winner of the 2015 Heisman Trophy will not be on the list of leading candidates going into the season.
24) Oregon and Florida State will not be in the Playoffs next year.
25) Ohio State and Alabama will be in the Playoffs next year.
26) Mississippi State and Ole Miss will not be in the Playoff discussion late in the season again.
27) TCU and Baylor will be in the Playoff discussion late in the season again.
28) I was impressed with Cardale Jone’s Press Conference announcing he is returning to school. I hope he does get his degree.
29) The odds of me keeping this blog going are 100,000:1.
30) The odds of anyone actually reading this blog are even greater than that.