College Football Playoffs – What we Learned in 2014

As we enter into the second year of the FBS College Football Playoffs format, let’s take a look at a few things we learned (or, at least, think we learned) from the inaugural year.

#1. If you are going to lose a game, lose it early in the year. Thank you, Ohio State.

#2. If you cannot go undefeated, have a strong out of conference schedule. Thank you, TCU.

#3. You can play lots of close games, as long as you don’t lose any of them. Thank you, Florida State.

#4. Conference Championships are important. Thank you, Ohio State and The Big 12 Conference.

#5. You can be ranked as high as 22 in the polls and still make the Playoffs. Thank you, Ohio State.

#6. Two teams or four teams, as long as humans are picking, there will be controversies. Thank you, Selection Committee.

#7. Playoff performance will shine a bright light on you. Thank you, Cardale Jones and Ezekiel Elliot.

#8. Playoffs are fun! Thank you, FBS.

Now, let’s see if those lessons hold true, or if we still have things to learn. Bring on 2015.

High Impact Freshman in 2015

There are several “perfect storm” factors that come into play resulting in a “high impact” freshman in big time college football. First, of course, you have to be good … real good. But, being good is not enough¸ you also have to have opportunity. There are plenty of real good freshman football players who, not only will not make an impact in year one, but will never even see the field in year one because there are better, more experienced football players ahead of them. Even though we, as fans, love to see that high impact freshman come into our program, it is often the sign that our favorite team has a “depth” problem at that position. It isn’t always a good sign that those highly touted, incoming freshmen are in the starting lineup in year one.

These young men also must make an adjustment, not just to the differences between high school and college football, but also an adjustment in their living environments, social lives, scholastic lives, etc. This life changing experience can make it difficult for some young men to assume the role of football superstar in their first year away from home. The ability to and time it takes to adjust to these all around changes have an impact on the first year football field performances of some of these young men. That is why many “high impact freshmen” are really red-shirt freshmen with 12 or more months under their belt adjusting to their new world order. Now, the newly popular, early enrollment path many college football players are taking helps prepare some of these young men to assume a starting role in their true freshman year, but that “opportunity” ingredient still needs to be there.

So, any list of “Potential Top Impact Freshmen” should not be confused with a list of “Best Incoming Freshmen”. Some of the best incoming freshmen will just have to wait their turn before making an impact. Having said all that, here is the short list of young men SOD is expecting to make a high level impact in the FBS.

The 3 young men whose names rise to the top of almost everyone’s list are:

• Byron Cowart, DE, Auburn
• Malik Jefferson, LB, Texas
• Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA

I suspect Byron and Malik to be monsters on the defensive side of the ball, but, given the position he plays, I am most curious about how Josh Rosen makes out in his freshman year at UCLA. The opportunity, it appears, is there for all three of these ballers, but, how they adjust to college life and how quickly they learn the system and earn a spot in the starting lineup is yet to be seen.

Three more young men that also appear likely to have an immediate impact in 2015 are:

• Trent Thompson, DL, Georgia
• Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama
• Martiz Ivey, OL, Florida

Like noted earlier, the fact that these three are all on SEC teams either indicates that the SEC has a recruiting advantage (which, they probably do) or that SEC teams have more holes to fill (which, they probably do).

SOD believes those 6 names above have the most likely chance of being first year stars in 2015, but significant playing time and significant impact could also come from any or all of these young men, as well:

• Iman Marshall, DB, USC
• Kahlil McKenzie, DT, Tennessee
• Canton Kaumatule, DL, Oregon
• Derwin James, S, Florida State
• Solomon Thomas, DL, Stanford
• Daylon Mack, DT, Texas A&M
• Kevin Tolliver, CB, LSU

Now, the chances are that the real impact freshmen come from out of the blue and off of this list. Those less highly recruited young men that outperform their expectations or that are afforded opportunities to excel due to injuries, suspensions or other reasons that put them into the starting lineup. Those stories will develop as the season plays out. And, those are the stories we will be looking for.

Whereas, we do expect big things from the names on our list, just by being names on the list puts high expectations on these young men, some of whom might not be ready for that pressure. But, we will see and we can’t wait to watch.

And, don’t be upset of your rooting interest does not have a name on this (or anyone else’s) list – it may simply mean you’ve already got the talent on your team to win today without a new freshman superstar contributing a high impact to the results.

The College Football Crisis Management Award

The “Some Other Dude’s College Football Blog” spawned from a weekly college football promotion I was writing for Safe Harbor Consulting (SHC), a Management Consulting Firm specializing in crisis management.  SHC ran a two-year promotion recognizing the FBS Team that overcame the largest deficit to win its football game each week.  They call this the “College Football Crisis Management Award”.  SHC will still sponsor this award in 2015, but the weekly articles will be posted on SOD’s College Football Blog.  This is a fun promotion to write about.

In 2013, many of the weekly winners came from games played outside of the Power 5 conferences.  Most of the weekly, largest comebacks came from obscure, low profile games.  Still fun to write about, but not as big of a draw.  2014 saw a little bit of a change in that trend.

The 2014 weekly winners of the SHC College Football Crisis Management Award are shown in the Table below.

In 2014, 8 games, recognized in the 15 full weeks of FBS play, included teams from one of the Power 5 Conferences.  Some of these games were very notable and you probably remember watching a few of them.  With so many games being played at the FBS level, you can usually count on at least one game with a notable comeback, although you do get a few dud weeks along the way.

The largest comeback on the year occurred in Week 6 when Miami (OH) overcame a 27 point deficit to beat Massachusetts, 42 – 41.  Both teams came into the game 0 – 5, looking for their first win of the season.  The Minutemen seemed to have the game won, but, apparently, they weren’t 60-minute men.  This is what makes the promotion so much fun – every game has a chance to be recognized.

There were a few weeks where the largest comeback was from only 14 points down (Week 16 doesn’t count – there was only one game, Army/Navy).  And, in Week 13 a full 5 games tied for the weekly honor at that 14 point mark.  Interestingly enough, Florida State, one of the teams that made the 4-team playoff at the end of the year, was in contention for the honor, on what seemed to be every week, and won the award with their 21 point, come-from-behind victory over Louisville in Week 10.

SOD is honored to be able to carry this promotion in our blog next year.  If you want to check out last years’ articles you can find them by clicking on the links included below.

Week 1.  Week 2.  Week 3.  Week 4.  Week 5.  Week 6.  Week 7.  Week 8.  Week 9.  Week 10.  Week 11.  Week 12.  Week 13.  Week 14.  Week 15we.

Trivia Tuesday – Power 5 Conferences

In recent years, there has been a lot of shuffling of College Football Conferences. And, if you believe Some Other Dude, there is more yet to come as we advance upon the age of the Mega-Conferences. But, SOD wonders, how well do you know the history of the current Power 5 Conferences?

THE TRIVIA CHALLENGE

Name the original teams in each of the current Power 5 Conferences.

THE BUFFER ZONE

THE ANSWERS

The Atlantic Coast Conference.  Even though we appear to be headed to 16 team Mega-Conferences, back in history there was an even mega-er conference; the Southern Conference.  The Southern Conference, at one time, consisted of 23 teams and eventually splintered into other, smaller conferences.  One of those splinter conferences was the ACC which officially formed as a conference in 1953.  The 7 charter members of the ACC were: Clemson, Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, North Carolina State, South Carolina and Wake Forest.  Only South Carolina no longer calls the ACC home as they eventually joined the other splinter conference with former Southern Conference brethren.  Link to information source.

The Big 12.  The history of the Big 12 is a little more convoluted than that of the other conferences.  The Big 12 itself wasn’t formed until 1994 when teams from the Big 8 merged with teams from the Southwest Conference.  The Big 8 Conference was originally chartered in 1907 as the Missouri Valley Intercollegiate Athletic Association and eventually became known as the Big 6 and then grew up to become the Big 8.  The original members of this conference were: Iowa (two-timing with the Big Ten), Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska and Washington University in St. Louis.  Only Kansas remains as a current member of The Big 12.  Link to information source.  The Southwest Conference was first formed in 1912, consisting of: Arkansas, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Rice, Texas and Texas A&M.  Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas remain as current members of the Big 12.  Link to information source.

The Big Ten.  The name “The Big Ten” was actually not officially incorporated until 1987, but the conference referred to as the Big Ten has been around since 1905.  The original conference was made up of 7 teams in what was known as the “Intercollegiate Conference Athletic Association”.  In 1917, when the conference had expanded to 10 teams, it was labeled the “Big Ten” by members of the media.  The original members of this so-called Big Ten Conference were: Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Purdue, University of Chicago and Wisconsin.  Only the University of Chicago is not a member of that conference today.  Link to information source.

The Pac 12.  The Pac 12 Conference started off as a little seedling conference that eventually grew up into the Pac 12.  Forming in 1916 as the Pacific Coast Conference, its original members stood at only 4 schools: California, Oregon, Oregon Agricultural College (later known as Oregon State) and Washington.  All four schools still remain in the conference today.  Interestingly, Idaho and Montana were one time members of this conference and the conference was disbanded and re-assembled in 1959 due to a pay-for-play scandal.  The re-formed conference was called the Athletic Association of Western Universities, commonly known as the Big 5. After growing once again, the conference started being referred to as the Pacific 8 in 1964 and officially became the Pacific 8 in 1968, the Pac 10 in 1978 and the Pac 12 in 2011.  Link to information source.

The SEC.  The SEC preceded the ACC in splintering away from the huge Southern Conference when 13 schools left in 1932 to form their own conference.  The 13 schools that made up the first version of the Southeastern Conference were: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Kentucky, LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Sewanee (University of the South), Tennessee, Tulane and Vanderbilt.  Georgia Tech now resides in the ACC; Tulane, although still an FBS school is no longer a member of a Power 5 Conference; and, Sewanee, after having decided to de-emphasize sports in 1940, currently competes in Division III athletics.  Link to information source.

2015 Week 1 – Too Soon?

So, here it is, February 12; Week 1 of the 2015 College Football Season is still over 6 months away, and, I wonder, is it too early to start looking forward to the Week 1 schedule? … HELL, NO!

Besides, what else do good, respectable, young college football fans have to do? Well, I might not be good, respectable or young, but I am a college football fan, so, here goes – the look ahead to Week 1.

The 2015 FBS College Football Schedule kicks off on a Thursday Night, September 3, with a couple intriguing match-ups.

The Carolinas, North and South will tangle at a, somewhat, neutral site, Bank of America Stadium, in Charlotte, NC, to get things started. Both teams are trying to get back into the thick of things in their respective conferences and this game should be a good indication of which team is poised to make a move. Steve Spurrier will be debuting a new signal caller in this game and the Tar Heel defense is a tough first-game assignment. The Tar Heels are currently ranked #35 in the ESPN PreSeason FPI Rankings and the Gamecocks weigh in at #40.

Jim Harbaugh will debut as the Head Coach for Michigan in Utah as the Wolverines try to pay back the Utes for embarrassing them in the Big House in 2014. A pretty tough assignment, to go on the road for your first game with a new program, and Wolverine expectations will be through the roof, but the Utes will be in no mode to be gracious hosts. An interesting match-up, indeed. Michigan currently stands at #28 in the ESPN PreSeason FPI Rankings while the Utes hold down the 38th spot.

After a nice double-dose of intriguing games on an opening Thursday night, football fans will get a couple of days rest to prepare themselves for the first Saturday of the new season and a handful of additional games that will merit some attention.

After leaving the program in 2013, Chris Petersen will head back to Boise State with his new team, the Washington Huskies. The Broncos will be anxious to show that his old, non-Power 5 program is still better than his new, PAC-12 squad. There will be a new gunslinger for the Broncos tossing footballs on the blue turf, but Boise State returns a good team coming off of their Fiesta Bowl victory over another PAC-12 team in #10 Arizona. Boise State is likely to be ranked in the Top 25 and Washington is likely to be one of those, “also receiving votes” teams coming into the game. Both teams will enter with a chip on their shoulder and one team will have it knocked off. Boise State is currently ranked #31 in the ESPN PreSeason FPI Rankings and Washington sits at #46.

The first Saturday also has Virginia travelling coast to coast to complete the home and home series against UCLA. The Cavaliers played a close, but losing game against the Briuns in their Virginia home in 2014. Going out west, however, the Cavaliers will be facing a Briuns’ squad that has a new QB at the helm, replacing the early departed Brett Hundley. It’s not easy going coast to coast for your first game of the season, as UCLA discovered last year; it will be interesting to see how this game kicks off the 2015 season for both teams. UCLA is currently ranked #12 in the ESPN PreSeason FPI Rankings while Virginia is ranked #56.

In what might be dubbed the Brainiac Bowl, the B1G Ten’s academic leader, Northwestern will make a trip out west to meet the PAC-12’s academic leader, Stanford. The Cardinal is likely to be a heavy favorite in this game, but an interesting matchup nonetheless between two of the finer educational institutions that happen to also field pretty good football teams. Stanford sits at #17 in the ESPN PreSeason FPI Rankings and Northwestern is down at #68.

The Badgers of Wisconsin are proving that they like to start off their seasons with a bang and do not shy away from tough scheduling challenges. Last year the Badgers started things off in a high-profile game against LSU, blowing a big lead in eventually losing the game, and will start off the 2015 season back in SEC country against the reigning SEC Champs in Alabama. The Crimson Tide does turnover a large portion of their starting lineup, but this seems to be something that Alabama does well. A good test for both teams to start the new year and a game that is sure to get most of the first Week spotlight going into the season. Alabama is currently ranked #2 in the ESPN PreSeason FPI Rankings and the Badgers fall in at #36. But, preseason polls are likely to have both teams in the Top 25.

In another intriguing contest with an SEC powerhouse, Louisville squares off against Auburn in the Georgia Dome. The Tigers will be replacing Nick Marshall at QB while Louisville brings in an experienced Will Gardner. Another early season measuring stick for two programs poised to make a run at their respective conference championships. Auburn is currently ranked #18 in the ESPN PreSeason FPI Rankings and the Cardinals sit at #44.

In a contest between two of the better teams in two of the best conferences, Arizona State and Texas A&M match up in NRG Stadium in Houston.  This is another good match-up that could be an early indication of which team is ready to vie for a top spot in their respective conferences.  Texas A&M is currently ranked #11 in the ESPN PreSeason FPI Rankings and Arizona State is a respectable #20.  All in all, a pretty good Week 1 for the SEC West top teams to send a signal to the rest of the college football world that they are still the cream of the crop.

And, the first week of the season is capped off with a Monday Night affair between the Buckeyes of Ohio State and the Virginia Tech Hokies. Last year, the Hokies hung an albatross around the Buckeyes’ necks almost big enough to keep them out of the playoffs. Ohio State overcame that “bad” loss on their journey to the National Championship, but will be looking to avenge the loss in Blacksburg. One thing for sure is – whichever QB is under center for the Buckeyes this time, it will be one with a lot more experience than JT Barrett had going into last years’ game.  Ohio State currently sits atop of the ESPN PreSeason FPI Rankings at #1 while Virginia Tech is ranked #25.

So, yes, it is over half a year away, but the intrigue these games promise will only grow brighter and brighter as the season gets closer and closer. There will also be some interest in games that appear less fairly matched as the nation watches to see how new QBs perform under center – like the Eastern Washington vs Oregon game in which Oregon’s new QB just might be Eastern’s old QB; and, the Texas State vs Florida State game in which famous Jameis will likely be watching from an NFL camp somewhere.

For now, however, its nearing time for college football fans to go into their summer hibernation, dreaming of the sounds of whistles to ring in an interesting Week 1.

College Football National Champions Trivia

Most of us know that Oregon participated in the National Championship Game in January seeking their first ever College Football National Championship title. Unfortunately for Duck fans, they are still seeking their first title. But, this got SOD to thinking – What was the last team to win a National Championship for the first time? Researching this answer led to the discovery of some other interesting (or, at least, SOD thinks they are interesting) facts. So, SOD thought he would see if any of you wise-crackers and college football aficionados know the answers to these National Championship related questions. All of these questions are based on AP/Coaches/USA T/ESPN Poll Rankings since 1936 (as recognized by the NCAA), the BCS Championship format from 1998 – 2013, and the Playoff Championship format for the 2014 season:

Q1. When was the last time that a Division I team won a National Championship for the 1st time?

Q2. When was the last time that a Division I team won a National Championship for their one and only time?

Q3. Of the teams that have won 4 or more National Championships since 1936, which team has gone the longest since their last title?

Q4. Of all the teams that have won a National Championship since the start of the AP Polls in 1936, which team has gone the longest without winning their 2nd Championship?

Q5. Which team expands the longest period of time between their first Championship and their most recent Championship (1936 – present)?

Q6. Which team that has won 2 or more National Championships had endured the longest gap between two Championships?

Q7. Of all the teams that have won a National Championship since 1936, only 3 of them do not currently play in a Power 5 Conference – name those three teams.

Q8. Who was crowned the 1st National Champion by the AP Poll in 1936?

Q9. What was the last team to win the National Championship prior to the start of the BCS? HINT: There were two-champions – It was a split title.

Q10. Who won the first BCS Championship Game? And, who did they beat?

ANSWERS

A1. 1996 – Florida. Florida won its 1st National Championship in 1996. Every team that has won the National Championship since 1996, including Florida’s two additional Championships, had won a previous Championship earlier than 1996.

A2. 1991 – Washington. The Huskies won a share of the National Championship with Miami-FL for its only National Championship in 1991. Washington was named Champion in the Coaches Poll and Miami was #1 in the AP Poll.

A3. Minnesota. Minnesota has 4 National Championships to its name, but hasn’t won one since 1960. There are 8 other teams with 4 or more championships, and they have all won at least one of them since 1960.

A4. TCU. TCU won the National Championship in 1938 and is still looking for the next one.

A5. Ohio State. Having won their 1st National Championship in 1942 and their most recent Championship in 2014, the Buckeyes expand 72 years between 1st and most recent.

A6. Auburn. The 53 years between Auburn’s National Championship in 1957 and the one they won in 2010 represents the longest gap between Championships of any Division I team.

A7. Notre Dame (8 Championships), Army (2), and BYU (1). All three teams are currently Independent football teams.

A8. Minnesota. The Golden Gophers were also recognized as the National Champions by the NCAA for the two years prior to the existence of the AP Poll (1934 and 1935) as determined by the polls then recognized by the NCAA.

A9. Michigan and Nebraska. In 1997, Michigan was crowned Champion in the AP Poll; Nebraska was ranked #1 in the USA/ESPN Poll.

A10. Tennessee / Florida State. Tennessee triumphed over Florida State, 23-16, in the first BCS Game held on January 4, 1999, ending the 1998 College Football season.

The NFL Combines and the Holes They Create

The NFL has invited over 300 draft eligible football players to its annual, pre-draft combine in Indianapolis, February 17 – 23.  Although this doesn’t tell the whole story, the list of invitees is a good place to start in identifying the talent that FBS schools have to replace going into the 2015 college football season.

SOD took a look at the teams that finished in the final AP Poll Top 10 to assess which teams might have the biggest challenges to overcome in a repeat visit the top based on this list of invitees.  Here is what SOD observed.

#1 Ohio State.  The Buckeyes have just 4 graduating seniors attending the NFL Combine.  As you would expect, all of the players invited were key contributors to their teams in 2014, and the Ohio State players are no different, but the four that the Buckeyes lose do not indicate that there will be gaping holes to fill in the 2015 roster.  This doesn’t bode well for the rest of the Big Ten and is a good indication that the Buckeyes will enter the 2015 season sitting at the top of the polls.

#2 Oregon.  There will be 7 ex-Ducks participating in the 2015 NFL Combines this year – not least of which will be Heisman Trophy winning, QB Marcus Mariota.  The Ducks also lose a couple offensive linemen and 4 defensive starters.  Not too many names on the list, but one huge hole to fill at QB.  That QB hole, however, is more than just talent; the leadership and character wrapped up in that Marcus Mariota package will also be hard to replace.  SOD doesn’t see Oregon falling too far down the polls, but the QB issue remains a big question mark.

#3 TCU.  Texas Christian will be represented by 5 players at the Combines this year, including 2 juniors.  The Horned Frogs lose 2 DBs, 1 LB, 1 OL and 1 RB.  All in all, not too big a hit for the Frogs who also come back to 2015 with a big ‘ole chip on their shoulder.  It looks like, using this as an indicator, that TCU has every reason to believe they can make another run at the playoffs in 2015 and, hopefully, this time, not be left out of the party.

#4 Alabama.  Alabama sends 11 players to the NFL Combine including 3 juniors.  ‘Bama’s list of attendees includes several players from skilled positions, including QB Blake Simms, RBs TJ Yeldon and Jalston Fowler, and WRs Amari Cooper, Chris Jones and DeAndrew White.  Yes, the Tide did just sign the #1 ranked Recruiting class; yes, Alabama does have a deep roster; and, yes, Nick Saban is a master at filling holes every year – but, it just seems that replacing experienced talent with inexperienced talent – especially in the skilled positions, might eventually catch up to the Tide and, if not move them out of the Top 10, maybe move them out of the now-all-important Top 4.  I wouldn’t bet against the Tide in 2015, but it also wouldn’t surprise me if they have some trouble replacing all of the talent they have recently lost to the NFL.

#t5 Michigan State.  The Spartans send 6 prospects to the NFL Combines including 1 junior.  The Spartans will be losing 2 DBs, 2 WR, 1 RB and 1 LB off of their 2014 roster.  Not too big of a hit.  The Spartans’ issue is not so much what they are losing, but the fact that the team that hovers above them in the Big Ten also brings back the majority of their starting lineup, as well.  Even so, the Spartans’ roster should keep them in the pre-season Top 10 going into 2015.

#t5  Florida State.  The Seminoles have placed 12 men into the 2015 NFL Combine including 5 early declarers.  A pretty huge hit to a regular season, undefeated team that got little respect for that accomplishment.  Florida State’s losses include a Heisman Trophy holding QB, in Jamies Winston, and a darn good RB in Karlos Williams.  The Seminoles also will be losing 4 from their offensive line and 2 from their defensive line.  The Seminoles did have a highly ranked recruiting class, but this is a lot of talent to lose – too much, SOD believes, to even sniff at next years’ playoffs.

#7  Baylor.  Like Oregon, Baylor’s issue is not in the number of holes created, but in the significance of the hole created at the QB position.  The Bears only have 4 players participating in the 2015 NFL Combine but one of them is super-star QB Bryce Petty.  Baylor does have the advantage (or, perhaps, disadvantage) of a relatively weak schedule again in 2015 but the fate of the Bears in the rankings may lie in the hands of the new QB.

#8  Georgia Tech.  The Yellow Jackets have two WRs participating in the NFL Combine – not a position too heavily relied upon in the Georgia Tech offense.  But, the Yellow Jackets finish in the 2014 rankings is not as much a result of the talent on their roster as it is in the system they run in Atlanta.  Georgia Tech is the kind of team that earns its way into the top ten on the field of play – seldom do they make the pre-season top 10 based on expectations.  SOD suspects the same will be true in 2015.

#9  Georgia.  The Bulldogs, the yearly enigma of college football, will have 5 players participating in the NFL Combine this year, including RB Todd Gurley.  The Bulldogs have successful and experienced running backs in the fold that have already proven they can do just fine without Mr. Gurley – even as talented as he may be.  So, Georgia does not lose too much from their roster and can be expected to be ranked highly in the pre-season rankings.  If history is any indication, however, you can almost as surely count on them losing a game or two they are not expected to during the year, knocking them down a peg or two.

 #10  UCLA.  UCLA is another 2014 Top 10 team who loses its star QB to the NFL in 2015.  That fact alone always makes a pre-season ranking hard to predict and hard to get right.  Besides QB Brett Hundley, the Bruins will have four defensive players participating in the NFL Combine.  Once again, not too big a loss in terms of numbers, but a question mark with who replaces the signal caller.  UCLA probably starts 2015 outside of the Top 10 but should have chances to play their way back into it as the season goes on.  The Pac-12 will be an interesting conference to follow in 2015 with so much turnover in the QB position.

So, the combines begin in less than a week and some of us will be watching closely to see how our favorite sons perform and project where they might land in the NFL.  Meanwhile, College Football’s Spring Practices are not far behind when the teams that have holes to fill start auditioning potential replacements.  Fun for everyone.

Jimmys and Joes

If you are a college football fan then you have probably heard the adage, “College football is not about the X’s and O’s; its all about the Jimmys and Joes”. Well, a lot of the Jimmys and Joes fell into place yesterday as National Signing Day 2015 finally arrived and recruits sent in their Letters of Intent (LOI) to the colleges and universities they will call home for the next 2 – 4 years, or so. Now, we will have to wait and see who actually got the right Jimmys and Joes.

In the final analyses, the number of stars the recruits bring with them won’t necessarily be the determining factor. Each class has only about 15 – 20 five star recruits – so, obviously, not enough to go around. Just how much separates a 4-star from a 5-star, or a 3 from a 4, is hard to say and is just a judgment call from self-labeled experts. Each individual coaching staff does their own evaluation and has their own inside-the-program ranking for each recruit. Also, coaches are looking beyond what recruit ranking sites look at and try to determine if the potential recruit is, what some coaches like to label, “our kinda guy” – an OKG.

The OKG is that young man who, above and beyond knowing how to play football and may already play in a system somewhat similar to the one the college employs, but also shares the values of the program; is willing to be coached; and has, as far as the coaching staff can determine, the mental and emotional maturity to fit right in and be a productive member of the football family – as a key contributor or otherwise.

Yes, the 4 and 5 star recruits garner the attention and receive the most applause and acclaim. And, more times than not, those 4 and 5 star recruits become the young men who form a solid foundation for elite football programs each year, but, SOD believes that what separates a good team from a great team are those who get the most out of their 2 and 3 star guys. Everybody fights hard to get those 4 and 5 star recruits and persuade them to commit, but the real science and the advantage gained is in finding those diamond in the rough guys, those 2s and 3s that you know you can develop into value-added contributors on your football team.

Chris Petersen (and his predecessors and successors) put together a nice little program at Boise State by finding those 2 and 3 star recruits who fit their system and were OKGs. Now Coach Petersen is going to try to do the same with, hopefully, 4 and 5 star recruits at Washington to regain some Husky glory.

Meanwhile, Boise State continues to excel with their OKGs. According to Rivals.com, the 2015 Boise State recruiting class comes in at #64. The Broncos class of ’14 was ranked #65; the ’13 class was #62; the ’12 class was #54 – and, yet, Boise State finished 2014 ranked #16 in the AP Poll and finished ranked #18 in 2012 – so, something is working with those Jimmys and Joes. This either suggests that there is something Xs and Os bring to the table or the real value of your coaching staff is their ability to get the most out of the Jimmys and Joes who do play for you.

So, as we tie a bow on the 2015 Recruiting class – with everyone but ‘Bama fans sick and tired of seeing the Crimson Tide ranked #1 again – coaching staffs are already knee deep into working on the 2016 class. Almost every coach interviewed yesterday on one of the numerous shows covering National Signing Day indicated that they already have recruit visits scheduled for the rest of this week to meet next years’ prospective recruits. Although it feels like Signing Day ends one cycle and starts another, don’t be fooled. Your top-of-the-heap programs are already well into the Class of 2016 – just look at those teams who finished ranked in the Top 5 this year.

According to ESPN’s Recruiting Nation,
• Alabama already has 3 verbal commitments for their 2016 class.
• Florida State has 7.
• USC has 3.
• Clemson has 7.
• Tennessee has 8.

It never ends.

The recruiting game is just one fun aspect of what separates college football from the NFL. And, it is what makes coaching this game a full-time job. The college football off-season is that proverbial duck on a pond (no, not an Oregon Duck), it looks smooth and easy on the surface, but there is a lot of energy and movement going on underneath.

Good luck to all you Jimmys and Joes; SOD hopes your college decisions work out well for you and your university.

Colleges Represented on NFL Rosters

Today’s blog is almost an extension of yesterday’s article on “The Rich Getting Richer”.

Yesterday, we made the observation that the FBS schools on top of the Recruiting Class list are the same teams on the top of the Team Rankings at the end of the year, and, these teams seem to be pretty much the same year in and year out with little variation. Seems rather obvious, wouldn’t you say?

So, with it being a Friday and all, and, with Some Other Dude’s brain already in weekend mode, let’s make another obvious connection: One would expect that these same schools would lead the list of colleges with the most ex-players (I almost typed “graduates” – what was I thinking!?) on NFL rosters. And, you would be right. Let’s take a look.

The following table tallies the top schools in terms of players on NFL rosters; shows their current ranking in 2015 recruiting classes (according to ESPN); their ranking in most appearances in the Final AP Poll; and their final ranking in the 2014 AP poll.

Just the vicious cycle one might expect to see: do well in recruiting, and you will do well in the polls, and you will put lots of players in the NFL. And, the reverse is also true – put lots of players in the NFL and do well in the polls and it will help you with recruiting.

A few anomalies do stick out, however. Like … what is California doing so high up on the list of players on NFL rosters!? The Golden Bears do not have highly rated recruiting classes; they don’t finish in the AP Final Poll too often, and yet, they have the 11th most number of former players in the NFL. That was a little surprising.

Clemson and Texas A&M have highly rated recruiting classes for 2015 (3 & 8 respectively) but only rank 23 and 25 in number of players in the NFL.  You would expect them to start moving up that chart with the recent recruiting success they have achieved.

This chart also supports the observation made in yesterday’s blog that Oregon is a relative newcomer to the elite football programs club with a low ranking in the number of appearances in the final AP poll but high rankings in all the other categories.

This chart also seems to suggest that Miami-FL and Florida are programs that are slipping a bit of late.  Also missing from the table are Michigan, Nebraska and Penn State – all programs that rank in the top 10 for number of appearances in the final AP Poll but not in the top 15 for current NFL players. This may suggest that their fall from the top has gone on a little bit longer.

With the Super Bowl just two days away, this chart has been making its rounds through social media.

A neat little chart, but with only a two team sample it can skew the real results. A school like Rutgers can wave this banner at potential recruits as evidence that they put good players in the NFL. Even schools like Utah State and Kent State can be proud of this chart. But, when you look at the whole picture, Rutgers ranks tied for 34th with 18 players on NFL rosters; Utah State falls in at tied for 60 with 11; and, Kent State ranks tied for 70th with 9.

All of this is just fun facts to throw around while we await the Super Bowl on Sunday and Signing Day on Wednesday. The fun just never stops.

The Rich Getting Richer

National Signing Day, the first day High School seniors can officially commit to the college they will attend, is just around the corner, Wednesday, February 4.  If you have found yourself to this blog that is probably something you already know and are looking forward to.

No real surprises are expected, as regards to the top classes; there may be a few individual commit surprises, but not enough to drastically change the class rankings.  In some people’s minds it’s just more of, “the rich getting richer”.  Some Other Dude thinks of it more as, “the rich staying rich”.  One of the downfalls of signing such elite classes year after year is the resulting high number, relatively speaking, of early declarers into the NFL Draft each year – so, SOD thinks of it more as replacing your riches as opposed to adding to them.

If you look at the Class Rankings from any number of Recruiting Web Sites, you see the same, usual suspects at the top of the list.  The ESPN Top 10, for example, lists, in order from 1 – 10: Alabama, Florida State, Clemson, Georgia, Tennessee, USC, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Texas, and Notre Dame.  All elite programs, maintaining their elite status.  To no one’s surprise, 6 out of those 10 teams finished 2014 in the AP Top 25 rankings.  Just the rich staying rich.

So, it seems to SOD that this pattern of Top Classes stays pretty consistent from year to year.  This would support the feeling that the elite schools in college football stay pretty constant from year to year.  I wonder, thinks SOD, am I influenced by recent events, or does history bear this out?  If we grouped college football programs into classifications, such as: Elite Programs; Near Elite Programs; Middle of the Road Programs; Below Average Programs; and Bottom Dwellers, how hard is it for one program to move from one grouping to another, and, how often does that occur?

Just relying on SOD’s instinct, it seems there are not that many programs that have moved into Elite or Near Elite status in recent history.  Just go down this years’ Final AP Poll and put a label on each program and how long they’ve been in that classification.  Go ahead, I’ll wait.

SOD, using only his instinct and, rather challenged, memory, labeled the Top 10 this way:

• Ohio State – Elite for a long time
• Oregon – Relatively new Elite
• TCU –Near Elite, moving upwards
• Alabama – Elite for a long time
• Michigan State – Moves between Elite and Near Elite
• Florida State – Moves between Elite and Near Elite – Mostly Elite
• Baylor – Newly Near Elite, moving upwards
• Georgia Tech – Fluctuates through all categories
• UCLA – Moves between Elite and Near Elite

Interested to see if facts support perception, SOD found this web page that lists the total number of appearances each school has in the final AP Poll throughout the years.

At the top of the list is Michigan, with 57 appearances.  The Wolverines have fallen on hard times of late but have had a long enough history of being an elite program that it is going to take more than a few years of mediocrity to knock them from this group.  And, Jim Harbaugh might have some magic to help get them back into the club.

Tied for 2^nd with 54 appearances are Oklahoma and Ohio State.  Elite and elite, although Oklahoma is at risk of slipping a bit if they don’t get back into Top 10 levels soon.

And, as you continue down the list there are no real surprises – one elite program after another.  Those with a deep history of being top programs are the same ones that are tops today – for the most part.  Certainly you have programs that have periods of mediocrity sprinkled in, but, you wouldn’t be surprised to see them bounce back to the top soon.  For instance, programs like Tennessee, which hasn’t had a Top 10 team for some time, weighs in at #9 all time.  The Volunteers haven’t finished in the final AP Poll since 2007, when they were ranked #12, and haven’t been in the Top 10 since 2001 (#4).  Tennessee is slipping down the list, but, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see them back in the polls in the near future, especially given their Top 10 ranking in this year’s recruiting class.

This list does suggest that some of today’s better programs are new members to the Elite and Near Elite category, as SOD suspected.  TCU, a team that probably deserved a spot in this years’ playoff, ranks 29 on the all-time list.  Oregon, an elite program today, ranks only 39 on the list.  The Ducks have only 15 appearances in the Final AP Poll, 14 of them since 1994 and 11 appearances since 2000.  So, the Ducks are proof that a program can move up through the classifications – but, they are that rare breed.

And, there are programs, like Georgia Tech, that seem to enjoy a roller-coaster ride through the classifications.  The Yellow Jackets have 25 appearances in the final rankings scattered throughout the decades, never staying too long and never being absent for too long.

So, let’s do one final comparison; let’s compare the Top 25 in the Final AP Poll for the decade years against 2014.

• The 2010 Final AP Poll included 11 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll.
• The 2000 Final AP Poll included 10 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll.
• The 1990 Final AP Poll included 6 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll.
• The 1980 Final AP Poll included 7 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll.
• The 1970 Final AP Poll included 6 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll
• The 1960 Final AP Poll included 7 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll.
• The 1950 Final AP Poll included 4 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll.
• The 1940 Final AP Poll included 3 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll.

NOTE:  The 1940 – 1980 Polls only ranked the Top 20 teams.

So, if you go back far enough, the list of elite teams changes a bit more drastically, but, over the past 50 years or so, it appears that it is rather difficult for teams to move up on the elite program scale.  But, programs like Oregon and Baylor show that it can be done.  And, there are other programs, like Rutgers for instance, that have slowly moved up from Bottom Dwellers to Middle of the Road that could be on the precipice of Near Elite or higher, especially given the recent change in conference affiliation.

It is a slowly changing landscape, but, if you root for one of those teams on the journey, it can be a fun ride.