NFL Draft – 1st Round QBs

The NFL Draft starts on April 30.  The combines are currently underway and everyone and their brother are projecting who will go where when the fun finally starts.  As usual, the QB class is garnering much of the attention – in particular, Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston.  SOD has seen mock drafts in which Marcus Mariota is the 1^st pick and Jaimeis Winston drops to #10.  SOD has seen mock drafts in which Jaimeis Winston is the 1^st pick and Marcus Mariota drops to #18.  Heck, SOD has seen mock drafts in which Marcus Mariota is not only not the first QB taken, but he isn’t even the first Marcus drafted – that falls to Marcus Peters, a CB out of Washington.  Regardless, however, the 2015 NFL Draft Class will see these two young men drafted in the first round.

So, historically, what does that say of the chances for success in the NFL for these two aspiring athletes?

In the past 10 years, there have been 24 QBs drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft.  Of those 24 men, half of them, 12, are currently listed as the starting QB on an NFL depth chart.  Of those 12 starting QBs, 10 of them are starting for the team that drafted them; only Mark Sanchez (drafted by NY Jets, starting for Philadelphia) and Jay Cutler (drafted by Denver, starting for Chicago) are starting for another team.  Six of the 24 first round draft picks in the past 10 years, no longer play in the NFL.  Sam Bradford, is not currently listed on the St. Louis Rams’ roster, but he was not counted as one of those 6 out of the league. 

Over the past 3 years, 8 QBs have been drafted in the 1^st round and 6 of them are currently listed as the #1 QB on the depth charts, although EJ Manuel may not hold that position at the start of the 2015 season.  Only Johnny Manziel and Brandon Weeden are not currently starting QBs.  That’s a pretty good run for drafted QBs in recent years.  However, of the 6 QBs drafted in 2011 and 2010, only Cam Newton is listed as a current #1 QB.  Jake Locker and Sam Bradford have been starting QBs that are currently injured – whether or not they regain a starter’s position is questionable.    Going beyond 10 years, there are six 1^st round drafted QBs starting in the NFL.

Of the 32 teams in the NFL, 18 of them have a 1^st Rd QB listed as the #1 Starter in their current depth chart.  Five starting QBs were drafted in the 2^nd round; three in the 3^rd round; one in the 4^th; 2 in the 6^th round; and, three starting QBs were undrafted.  Now, some of these team’s depth charts to start 2015 will be different than what is listed today – but, that is currently how things stand.  So, although a 1^st round pick does not guarantee success in the NFL – the odds are pretty good that a 1^st round drafted QB will end up starting in the NFL.

With two highly touted QBs in the 2015 class, the question is: Will this be more like the 2008 class or the 2007 class?  The two QBs selected in 2008 are still both starting QBs for their drafting teams and have each started 110 or more games over their 7 years in the league (out of a possible 112 games).  The two QBs selected in 2007 are both out of the league after having only started a combined 45 games before changing careers.  Will Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota be more like Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco or more like JeMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn?  It is hard to remember the mindset at that time, but, it is easy to believe that the expectations were just as high for each of these QB draft classes.  In fact, a Russell/Quinn combination almost seems a better comparison to Winston/Mariota going into the draft.

Of course, like all things, time will tell.  You never know what circumstances regarding injuries or other situations might play out to influence the careers of these two men, but, it is fun to speculate.

The draft is still 2 months away and we will have plenty of stories to read about why they will or will not succeed from experts looking into the future.  We will hear about their athletic promise, their perceived character and, apparently, how much weight they have put on in the off-season.

Meanwhile, SOD will  focus more on the college kids who step in to replace these young men on the teams they are leaving.  The circle of life continues.

2015 Week 1 – Too Soon?

So, here it is, February 12; Week 1 of the 2015 College Football Season is still over 6 months away, and, I wonder, is it too early to start looking forward to the Week 1 schedule? … HELL, NO!

Besides, what else do good, respectable, young college football fans have to do? Well, I might not be good, respectable or young, but I am a college football fan, so, here goes – the look ahead to Week 1.

The 2015 FBS College Football Schedule kicks off on a Thursday Night, September 3, with a couple intriguing match-ups.

The Carolinas, North and South will tangle at a, somewhat, neutral site, Bank of America Stadium, in Charlotte, NC, to get things started. Both teams are trying to get back into the thick of things in their respective conferences and this game should be a good indication of which team is poised to make a move. Steve Spurrier will be debuting a new signal caller in this game and the Tar Heel defense is a tough first-game assignment. The Tar Heels are currently ranked #35 in the ESPN PreSeason FPI Rankings and the Gamecocks weigh in at #40.

Jim Harbaugh will debut as the Head Coach for Michigan in Utah as the Wolverines try to pay back the Utes for embarrassing them in the Big House in 2014. A pretty tough assignment, to go on the road for your first game with a new program, and Wolverine expectations will be through the roof, but the Utes will be in no mode to be gracious hosts. An interesting match-up, indeed. Michigan currently stands at #28 in the ESPN PreSeason FPI Rankings while the Utes hold down the 38th spot.

After a nice double-dose of intriguing games on an opening Thursday night, football fans will get a couple of days rest to prepare themselves for the first Saturday of the new season and a handful of additional games that will merit some attention.

After leaving the program in 2013, Chris Petersen will head back to Boise State with his new team, the Washington Huskies. The Broncos will be anxious to show that his old, non-Power 5 program is still better than his new, PAC-12 squad. There will be a new gunslinger for the Broncos tossing footballs on the blue turf, but Boise State returns a good team coming off of their Fiesta Bowl victory over another PAC-12 team in #10 Arizona. Boise State is likely to be ranked in the Top 25 and Washington is likely to be one of those, “also receiving votes” teams coming into the game. Both teams will enter with a chip on their shoulder and one team will have it knocked off. Boise State is currently ranked #31 in the ESPN PreSeason FPI Rankings and Washington sits at #46.

The first Saturday also has Virginia travelling coast to coast to complete the home and home series against UCLA. The Cavaliers played a close, but losing game against the Briuns in their Virginia home in 2014. Going out west, however, the Cavaliers will be facing a Briuns’ squad that has a new QB at the helm, replacing the early departed Brett Hundley. It’s not easy going coast to coast for your first game of the season, as UCLA discovered last year; it will be interesting to see how this game kicks off the 2015 season for both teams. UCLA is currently ranked #12 in the ESPN PreSeason FPI Rankings while Virginia is ranked #56.

In what might be dubbed the Brainiac Bowl, the B1G Ten’s academic leader, Northwestern will make a trip out west to meet the PAC-12’s academic leader, Stanford. The Cardinal is likely to be a heavy favorite in this game, but an interesting matchup nonetheless between two of the finer educational institutions that happen to also field pretty good football teams. Stanford sits at #17 in the ESPN PreSeason FPI Rankings and Northwestern is down at #68.

The Badgers of Wisconsin are proving that they like to start off their seasons with a bang and do not shy away from tough scheduling challenges. Last year the Badgers started things off in a high-profile game against LSU, blowing a big lead in eventually losing the game, and will start off the 2015 season back in SEC country against the reigning SEC Champs in Alabama. The Crimson Tide does turnover a large portion of their starting lineup, but this seems to be something that Alabama does well. A good test for both teams to start the new year and a game that is sure to get most of the first Week spotlight going into the season. Alabama is currently ranked #2 in the ESPN PreSeason FPI Rankings and the Badgers fall in at #36. But, preseason polls are likely to have both teams in the Top 25.

In another intriguing contest with an SEC powerhouse, Louisville squares off against Auburn in the Georgia Dome. The Tigers will be replacing Nick Marshall at QB while Louisville brings in an experienced Will Gardner. Another early season measuring stick for two programs poised to make a run at their respective conference championships. Auburn is currently ranked #18 in the ESPN PreSeason FPI Rankings and the Cardinals sit at #44.

In a contest between two of the better teams in two of the best conferences, Arizona State and Texas A&M match up in NRG Stadium in Houston.  This is another good match-up that could be an early indication of which team is ready to vie for a top spot in their respective conferences.  Texas A&M is currently ranked #11 in the ESPN PreSeason FPI Rankings and Arizona State is a respectable #20.  All in all, a pretty good Week 1 for the SEC West top teams to send a signal to the rest of the college football world that they are still the cream of the crop.

And, the first week of the season is capped off with a Monday Night affair between the Buckeyes of Ohio State and the Virginia Tech Hokies. Last year, the Hokies hung an albatross around the Buckeyes’ necks almost big enough to keep them out of the playoffs. Ohio State overcame that “bad” loss on their journey to the National Championship, but will be looking to avenge the loss in Blacksburg. One thing for sure is – whichever QB is under center for the Buckeyes this time, it will be one with a lot more experience than JT Barrett had going into last years’ game.  Ohio State currently sits atop of the ESPN PreSeason FPI Rankings at #1 while Virginia Tech is ranked #25.

So, yes, it is over half a year away, but the intrigue these games promise will only grow brighter and brighter as the season gets closer and closer. There will also be some interest in games that appear less fairly matched as the nation watches to see how new QBs perform under center – like the Eastern Washington vs Oregon game in which Oregon’s new QB just might be Eastern’s old QB; and, the Texas State vs Florida State game in which famous Jameis will likely be watching from an NFL camp somewhere.

For now, however, its nearing time for college football fans to go into their summer hibernation, dreaming of the sounds of whistles to ring in an interesting Week 1.

30 Random Thoughts for the First Post on a New College Football Blog

1) The last thing the world needs is another blog on College Football.
2) Especially, a College Football blog written by a schmuck with no business writing a College Football Blog.
3) Starting a new College Football Blog on January 23 is about as stupid as it gets.
4) Since Braxton Miller has already graduated and does not have to sit out a year if he transfers – I think he should transfer.
5) Remember that Russell Wilson did number 4.
6) Even though almost every analyst I hear is saying Marcus Mariota is a can’t miss NFL prospect – I think he can miss.
7) I hope Jameis Winston grows up.
8) I bet the Baltimore Ravens don’t trade up to get Jameis Winston in the draft – or ever.
9) I think the Big 12 is making a Big mistake if it doesn’t expand to Championship-size.
10) I bet Bo Pelini doesn’t coach at Youngstown State for more than 1 year.
11) Just to keep things cosmically balanced, the Pac-12 should add Colorado State and Utah State to become the Pac-14.
12) Notre Dame and BYU need to join a conference.
13) Boise State should be in a big boy conference.
14) TCU still has good reason to be upset.
15) I am available to be a member of the Playoff Selection Committee – just say’n.
16) Urban Meyer and Jim Harbaugh have the potential of being a modern day Woody Hayes and Bo Shembechler. And, that would be cool. (Although Woody and Bo had a secret admiration for each other – I’m not sure Urban and Jim will develop that.)
17) Washington Huskies v. Boise State Broncos is a GREAT Week 1 match-up for 2015.
18) Becoming eligible for bowl games again; getting scholarships back; and getting wins re-instated is no excuse for Penn State to not follow up on lessons learned from the Jerry Sandusky tragedy.
19) The SEC is still a powerful football conference – with or without an ESPN bias.
20) I know I’m a nerd, but, I like the Kirk Herbstreit / Lee Corso dynamics.
21) I know I’m a nerd, but, I hate the Lou Holtz / Mark May dynamics.
22) I’m a nerd.
23) The winner of the 2015 Heisman Trophy will not be on the list of leading candidates going into the season.
24) Oregon and Florida State will not be in the Playoffs next year.
25) Ohio State and Alabama will be in the Playoffs next year.
26) Mississippi State and Ole Miss will not be in the Playoff discussion late in the season again.
27) TCU and Baylor will be in the Playoff discussion late in the season again.
28) I was impressed with Cardale Jone’s Press Conference announcing he is returning to school. I hope he does get his degree.
29) The odds of me keeping this blog going are 100,000:1.
30) The odds of anyone actually reading this blog are even greater than that.