High Impact Freshman in 2015

There are several “perfect storm” factors that come into play resulting in a “high impact” freshman in big time college football. First, of course, you have to be good … real good. But, being good is not enough¸ you also have to have opportunity. There are plenty of real good freshman football players who, not only will not make an impact in year one, but will never even see the field in year one because there are better, more experienced football players ahead of them. Even though we, as fans, love to see that high impact freshman come into our program, it is often the sign that our favorite team has a “depth” problem at that position. It isn’t always a good sign that those highly touted, incoming freshmen are in the starting lineup in year one.

These young men also must make an adjustment, not just to the differences between high school and college football, but also an adjustment in their living environments, social lives, scholastic lives, etc. This life changing experience can make it difficult for some young men to assume the role of football superstar in their first year away from home. The ability to and time it takes to adjust to these all around changes have an impact on the first year football field performances of some of these young men. That is why many “high impact freshmen” are really red-shirt freshmen with 12 or more months under their belt adjusting to their new world order. Now, the newly popular, early enrollment path many college football players are taking helps prepare some of these young men to assume a starting role in their true freshman year, but that “opportunity” ingredient still needs to be there.

So, any list of “Potential Top Impact Freshmen” should not be confused with a list of “Best Incoming Freshmen”. Some of the best incoming freshmen will just have to wait their turn before making an impact. Having said all that, here is the short list of young men SOD is expecting to make a high level impact in the FBS.

The 3 young men whose names rise to the top of almost everyone’s list are:

• Byron Cowart, DE, Auburn
• Malik Jefferson, LB, Texas
• Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA

I suspect Byron and Malik to be monsters on the defensive side of the ball, but, given the position he plays, I am most curious about how Josh Rosen makes out in his freshman year at UCLA. The opportunity, it appears, is there for all three of these ballers, but, how they adjust to college life and how quickly they learn the system and earn a spot in the starting lineup is yet to be seen.

Three more young men that also appear likely to have an immediate impact in 2015 are:

• Trent Thompson, DL, Georgia
• Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama
• Martiz Ivey, OL, Florida

Like noted earlier, the fact that these three are all on SEC teams either indicates that the SEC has a recruiting advantage (which, they probably do) or that SEC teams have more holes to fill (which, they probably do).

SOD believes those 6 names above have the most likely chance of being first year stars in 2015, but significant playing time and significant impact could also come from any or all of these young men, as well:

• Iman Marshall, DB, USC
• Kahlil McKenzie, DT, Tennessee
• Canton Kaumatule, DL, Oregon
• Derwin James, S, Florida State
• Solomon Thomas, DL, Stanford
• Daylon Mack, DT, Texas A&M
• Kevin Tolliver, CB, LSU

Now, the chances are that the real impact freshmen come from out of the blue and off of this list. Those less highly recruited young men that outperform their expectations or that are afforded opportunities to excel due to injuries, suspensions or other reasons that put them into the starting lineup. Those stories will develop as the season plays out. And, those are the stories we will be looking for.

Whereas, we do expect big things from the names on our list, just by being names on the list puts high expectations on these young men, some of whom might not be ready for that pressure. But, we will see and we can’t wait to watch.

And, don’t be upset of your rooting interest does not have a name on this (or anyone else’s) list – it may simply mean you’ve already got the talent on your team to win today without a new freshman superstar contributing a high impact to the results.

The College Football Crisis Management Award

The “Some Other Dude’s College Football Blog” spawned from a weekly college football promotion I was writing for Safe Harbor Consulting (SHC), a Management Consulting Firm specializing in crisis management.  SHC ran a two-year promotion recognizing the FBS Team that overcame the largest deficit to win its football game each week.  They call this the “College Football Crisis Management Award”.  SHC will still sponsor this award in 2015, but the weekly articles will be posted on SOD’s College Football Blog.  This is a fun promotion to write about.

In 2013, many of the weekly winners came from games played outside of the Power 5 conferences.  Most of the weekly, largest comebacks came from obscure, low profile games.  Still fun to write about, but not as big of a draw.  2014 saw a little bit of a change in that trend.

The 2014 weekly winners of the SHC College Football Crisis Management Award are shown in the Table below.

In 2014, 8 games, recognized in the 15 full weeks of FBS play, included teams from one of the Power 5 Conferences.  Some of these games were very notable and you probably remember watching a few of them.  With so many games being played at the FBS level, you can usually count on at least one game with a notable comeback, although you do get a few dud weeks along the way.

The largest comeback on the year occurred in Week 6 when Miami (OH) overcame a 27 point deficit to beat Massachusetts, 42 – 41.  Both teams came into the game 0 – 5, looking for their first win of the season.  The Minutemen seemed to have the game won, but, apparently, they weren’t 60-minute men.  This is what makes the promotion so much fun – every game has a chance to be recognized.

There were a few weeks where the largest comeback was from only 14 points down (Week 16 doesn’t count – there was only one game, Army/Navy).  And, in Week 13 a full 5 games tied for the weekly honor at that 14 point mark.  Interestingly enough, Florida State, one of the teams that made the 4-team playoff at the end of the year, was in contention for the honor, on what seemed to be every week, and won the award with their 21 point, come-from-behind victory over Louisville in Week 10.

SOD is honored to be able to carry this promotion in our blog next year.  If you want to check out last years’ articles you can find them by clicking on the links included below.

Week 1.  Week 2.  Week 3.  Week 4.  Week 5.  Week 6.  Week 7.  Week 8.  Week 9.  Week 10.  Week 11.  Week 12.  Week 13.  Week 14.  Week 15we.

Trivia Tuesday – Power 5 Conferences

In recent years, there has been a lot of shuffling of College Football Conferences. And, if you believe Some Other Dude, there is more yet to come as we advance upon the age of the Mega-Conferences. But, SOD wonders, how well do you know the history of the current Power 5 Conferences?

THE TRIVIA CHALLENGE

Name the original teams in each of the current Power 5 Conferences.

THE BUFFER ZONE

THE ANSWERS

The Atlantic Coast Conference.  Even though we appear to be headed to 16 team Mega-Conferences, back in history there was an even mega-er conference; the Southern Conference.  The Southern Conference, at one time, consisted of 23 teams and eventually splintered into other, smaller conferences.  One of those splinter conferences was the ACC which officially formed as a conference in 1953.  The 7 charter members of the ACC were: Clemson, Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, North Carolina State, South Carolina and Wake Forest.  Only South Carolina no longer calls the ACC home as they eventually joined the other splinter conference with former Southern Conference brethren.  Link to information source.

The Big 12.  The history of the Big 12 is a little more convoluted than that of the other conferences.  The Big 12 itself wasn’t formed until 1994 when teams from the Big 8 merged with teams from the Southwest Conference.  The Big 8 Conference was originally chartered in 1907 as the Missouri Valley Intercollegiate Athletic Association and eventually became known as the Big 6 and then grew up to become the Big 8.  The original members of this conference were: Iowa (two-timing with the Big Ten), Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska and Washington University in St. Louis.  Only Kansas remains as a current member of The Big 12.  Link to information source.  The Southwest Conference was first formed in 1912, consisting of: Arkansas, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Rice, Texas and Texas A&M.  Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas remain as current members of the Big 12.  Link to information source.

The Big Ten.  The name “The Big Ten” was actually not officially incorporated until 1987, but the conference referred to as the Big Ten has been around since 1905.  The original conference was made up of 7 teams in what was known as the “Intercollegiate Conference Athletic Association”.  In 1917, when the conference had expanded to 10 teams, it was labeled the “Big Ten” by members of the media.  The original members of this so-called Big Ten Conference were: Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Purdue, University of Chicago and Wisconsin.  Only the University of Chicago is not a member of that conference today.  Link to information source.

The Pac 12.  The Pac 12 Conference started off as a little seedling conference that eventually grew up into the Pac 12.  Forming in 1916 as the Pacific Coast Conference, its original members stood at only 4 schools: California, Oregon, Oregon Agricultural College (later known as Oregon State) and Washington.  All four schools still remain in the conference today.  Interestingly, Idaho and Montana were one time members of this conference and the conference was disbanded and re-assembled in 1959 due to a pay-for-play scandal.  The re-formed conference was called the Athletic Association of Western Universities, commonly known as the Big 5. After growing once again, the conference started being referred to as the Pacific 8 in 1964 and officially became the Pacific 8 in 1968, the Pac 10 in 1978 and the Pac 12 in 2011.  Link to information source.

The SEC.  The SEC preceded the ACC in splintering away from the huge Southern Conference when 13 schools left in 1932 to form their own conference.  The 13 schools that made up the first version of the Southeastern Conference were: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Kentucky, LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Sewanee (University of the South), Tennessee, Tulane and Vanderbilt.  Georgia Tech now resides in the ACC; Tulane, although still an FBS school is no longer a member of a Power 5 Conference; and, Sewanee, after having decided to de-emphasize sports in 1940, currently competes in Division III athletics.  Link to information source.

Greatest College Football Games Never Played

As we sit in the off season and wait for August to roll around again, SOD likes to look ahead at the upcoming schedules. In so doing, I was wondering, “What are some great football match-ups that haven’t yet occurred?” What are the greatest games never played?

To answer this question, SOD looked at the schools with the all-time winningest records and identified which of these schools have never played each other.

Like all of SOD’s, unscientific research, the results are only as good as my internet search skills allow – so, my findings may contain some erroneous data, but, the following table lists those match-ups of current FBS schools listed in the top 30 of all-time winningest programs that have not matched up against each other, as best as I could discover.

Many of these unplayed games make geographic sense, but a few of them are surprising and, almost all of them, would make great match-ups in future schedules.

A few observations:

Probably the most surprising games not yet played are: Tennessee v West Virginia and Penn State v Virginia Tech. It is also surprising to see that Oklahoma has never played Georgia and Arkansas has never gone up against Clemson. All of these non-games should be played!

The one team that shows up most often on this list is Washington. The Huskies have not yet matched up against 8 of the 23 other teams on top of the list of winningest programs. I know that the Dawgs are tucked away in the Pacific Northwest corner of the US and many of these teams are Eastern and Southern schools, but, come on Dawgs, you need to get out more!

SOD looked over this list and tried to determine which game would most likely be a National Championship Game? I’d probably have to go with Oklahoma v Georgia.

As we venture deeper into the new world order of the FBS playoff and schedule strength starts to play a bigger and bigger role in who gets selected to participate in the playoffs, SOD believes that we will see fewer and fewer cupcakes on FBS teams’ schedules. As a result, the list of unplayed games shown above would be a great place to start in finding non-conference games to play. Really – which one of those games would you not want to see played and have your team go up against some patsy instead?

Oh well, a guy can dream can’t he?

2015 Week 1 – Too Soon?

So, here it is, February 12; Week 1 of the 2015 College Football Season is still over 6 months away, and, I wonder, is it too early to start looking forward to the Week 1 schedule? … HELL, NO!

Besides, what else do good, respectable, young college football fans have to do? Well, I might not be good, respectable or young, but I am a college football fan, so, here goes – the look ahead to Week 1.

The 2015 FBS College Football Schedule kicks off on a Thursday Night, September 3, with a couple intriguing match-ups.

The Carolinas, North and South will tangle at a, somewhat, neutral site, Bank of America Stadium, in Charlotte, NC, to get things started. Both teams are trying to get back into the thick of things in their respective conferences and this game should be a good indication of which team is poised to make a move. Steve Spurrier will be debuting a new signal caller in this game and the Tar Heel defense is a tough first-game assignment. The Tar Heels are currently ranked #35 in the ESPN PreSeason FPI Rankings and the Gamecocks weigh in at #40.

Jim Harbaugh will debut as the Head Coach for Michigan in Utah as the Wolverines try to pay back the Utes for embarrassing them in the Big House in 2014. A pretty tough assignment, to go on the road for your first game with a new program, and Wolverine expectations will be through the roof, but the Utes will be in no mode to be gracious hosts. An interesting match-up, indeed. Michigan currently stands at #28 in the ESPN PreSeason FPI Rankings while the Utes hold down the 38th spot.

After a nice double-dose of intriguing games on an opening Thursday night, football fans will get a couple of days rest to prepare themselves for the first Saturday of the new season and a handful of additional games that will merit some attention.

After leaving the program in 2013, Chris Petersen will head back to Boise State with his new team, the Washington Huskies. The Broncos will be anxious to show that his old, non-Power 5 program is still better than his new, PAC-12 squad. There will be a new gunslinger for the Broncos tossing footballs on the blue turf, but Boise State returns a good team coming off of their Fiesta Bowl victory over another PAC-12 team in #10 Arizona. Boise State is likely to be ranked in the Top 25 and Washington is likely to be one of those, “also receiving votes” teams coming into the game. Both teams will enter with a chip on their shoulder and one team will have it knocked off. Boise State is currently ranked #31 in the ESPN PreSeason FPI Rankings and Washington sits at #46.

The first Saturday also has Virginia travelling coast to coast to complete the home and home series against UCLA. The Cavaliers played a close, but losing game against the Briuns in their Virginia home in 2014. Going out west, however, the Cavaliers will be facing a Briuns’ squad that has a new QB at the helm, replacing the early departed Brett Hundley. It’s not easy going coast to coast for your first game of the season, as UCLA discovered last year; it will be interesting to see how this game kicks off the 2015 season for both teams. UCLA is currently ranked #12 in the ESPN PreSeason FPI Rankings while Virginia is ranked #56.

In what might be dubbed the Brainiac Bowl, the B1G Ten’s academic leader, Northwestern will make a trip out west to meet the PAC-12’s academic leader, Stanford. The Cardinal is likely to be a heavy favorite in this game, but an interesting matchup nonetheless between two of the finer educational institutions that happen to also field pretty good football teams. Stanford sits at #17 in the ESPN PreSeason FPI Rankings and Northwestern is down at #68.

The Badgers of Wisconsin are proving that they like to start off their seasons with a bang and do not shy away from tough scheduling challenges. Last year the Badgers started things off in a high-profile game against LSU, blowing a big lead in eventually losing the game, and will start off the 2015 season back in SEC country against the reigning SEC Champs in Alabama. The Crimson Tide does turnover a large portion of their starting lineup, but this seems to be something that Alabama does well. A good test for both teams to start the new year and a game that is sure to get most of the first Week spotlight going into the season. Alabama is currently ranked #2 in the ESPN PreSeason FPI Rankings and the Badgers fall in at #36. But, preseason polls are likely to have both teams in the Top 25.

In another intriguing contest with an SEC powerhouse, Louisville squares off against Auburn in the Georgia Dome. The Tigers will be replacing Nick Marshall at QB while Louisville brings in an experienced Will Gardner. Another early season measuring stick for two programs poised to make a run at their respective conference championships. Auburn is currently ranked #18 in the ESPN PreSeason FPI Rankings and the Cardinals sit at #44.

In a contest between two of the better teams in two of the best conferences, Arizona State and Texas A&M match up in NRG Stadium in Houston.  This is another good match-up that could be an early indication of which team is ready to vie for a top spot in their respective conferences.  Texas A&M is currently ranked #11 in the ESPN PreSeason FPI Rankings and Arizona State is a respectable #20.  All in all, a pretty good Week 1 for the SEC West top teams to send a signal to the rest of the college football world that they are still the cream of the crop.

And, the first week of the season is capped off with a Monday Night affair between the Buckeyes of Ohio State and the Virginia Tech Hokies. Last year, the Hokies hung an albatross around the Buckeyes’ necks almost big enough to keep them out of the playoffs. Ohio State overcame that “bad” loss on their journey to the National Championship, but will be looking to avenge the loss in Blacksburg. One thing for sure is – whichever QB is under center for the Buckeyes this time, it will be one with a lot more experience than JT Barrett had going into last years’ game.  Ohio State currently sits atop of the ESPN PreSeason FPI Rankings at #1 while Virginia Tech is ranked #25.

So, yes, it is over half a year away, but the intrigue these games promise will only grow brighter and brighter as the season gets closer and closer. There will also be some interest in games that appear less fairly matched as the nation watches to see how new QBs perform under center – like the Eastern Washington vs Oregon game in which Oregon’s new QB just might be Eastern’s old QB; and, the Texas State vs Florida State game in which famous Jameis will likely be watching from an NFL camp somewhere.

For now, however, its nearing time for college football fans to go into their summer hibernation, dreaming of the sounds of whistles to ring in an interesting Week 1.

A Look Back on the 2014 5-Star Recruits

You know, it wasn’t that long ago when most of us would not have been aware tomorrow is Signing Day for High School seniors to sign their Letters of Intent (LOI) with the colleges and universities they planned to attend in the coming fall. My how things have changed.

Now, there are subscription web-sites with 100s of thousands of subscribers, chat rooms full of discussions, rankings of stars all over the place and television stations with all day coverage of the faxes coming in. Just amazing!

And, this changes the landscape a little bit. The attention some of these high school kids get is both phenomenal and disgusting. There are thousands of people following their every move on social networking sites. There are press conferences set up in high school gyms and the, sometimes infamous, selection of the hat. Just unbelievable. And, Some Other Dude is caught up in it just like the rest of you.

One interesting phenomena, I think, that comes out of this is the “flavor of the month” aspect. We follow our teams’ recruiting efforts; see who made verbal commitments and how many stars they wear. We know the names and statistics for hundreds of kids and have seen video for dozens of them. We have high hopes for many who have yet to even enroll in the school, yet alone played one down of college football. Then, signing day comes, we get all excited, re-read the profiles of the kids who did sign the dotted line and then start looking at next year’s prospects – the new flavors.

Then, the kids who were in the spotlights the year before get red-shirted, get injured, can’t adjust to the new environment, or are just buried in the depth chart and are, so it seems, quickly forgotten. We seem to expect the new year’s recruits to unseat last years’ recruits just because they didn’t immediately become superstars, or even starters. And, because we started following these kids back in their junior years in high school, if they don’t start on the college team before they are juniors there, we forget about them completely and write them off as busts. Funny how that works.

So, SOD wonders, how many 5 stars actually make a big splash on campus their freshmen year? Lets take a look at last year’s class.

According to ESPN, the 2014 Recruiting Class included 15, 5 star recruits.

The number 1 recruit, RB Leonard Fournette lived up to the hype and, actually, did make a splash with LSU. Leonard carried the ball 187 times for 1,034 yards with 10 TDs and had 7 receptions for 127 yards. A good year that ended with a 143 yards rushing effort against Notre Dame in the Music City Bowl. No one will be forgetting Leonard Fournette any time soon. Splash.

The number 2 ranked recruit was Jabrill Peppers, a DB who signed with Michigan. Jabrill had a tough first year at Michigan. He played sparingly in the first four games before being sidelined by injury and applying for a medical red-shirt. Jabrill totaled 8 tackles in 2014. No splash.

Coming in at number 3 was Cameron Robinson an OT who signed with Alabama. Offensive line is typically a position that requires time to make the first team on the depth chart, and often, those recruits who are most easily forgotten. Cam, however, lived up to his billing and started in all 14 of Alabama’s games. Splash.

Number 4 was DE Myles Garrett who signed with Texas A & M. Myles had a terrific freshmen year for the Aggies leading the team in QB sacks (11.0), tackles for loss (12.5) and QB hurries (9) while also being 2nd amongst defensive linemen with 50 tackles. Splash.

Number 5 was Andrew Brown, a DT signing with Virginia. Andrew was one of four true freshmen to see playing time with the Cavaliers, appearing in 6 games, including the final 4 games. Andrew amassed 4 tackles in his playing time. It certainly is an accomplishment for a true freshman to find the playing field, but, there was no splash here.

The number 6 ranked recruit, according to ESPN, was Da’Shawn Hand, a DE who signed with Alabama. As a true freshmen, Da’Shawn played in 9 games and recorded 7 total tackles (4 unassisted, 3 assisted). Again, quite an accomplishment to find playing time on a team that competed for the National Championship, but not a splash … yet.

Number 7 in the class of 2014 was Speedy Noil, listed as an ATH, who signed with Texas A&M. Like fellow Texas A&M signee, Myles Garrett, Speedy had a terrific first year for the Aggies. Speedy performed as a receiver and return man throughout the year. Speedy led the Aggies in all-purpose yards, punt return yards and kickoff return yards despite missing a game due to injury. Speedy amassed 559 yards on 44 receptions with 5 TDs; 575 yards on 24 kickoff returns (24.0 avg); and, 178 yards on 14 punt returns (12.7 avg). All in all, a nice splash.

The number 8 recruit was Tony Brown, a CB who signed with Alabama (man, I’m beginning to see a pattern here – the SEC killed it!). Tony played in 13 games, starting 2 (games 4 and 5). Tony recorded 10 total tackles (7 ua, 3 a). A good start to a promising career, but not quite splash status.

Coming in at number 9 was Adoree’ Jackson, a WR signing with USC. Adoree’ played in all 13 Trojan games, starting the last 9. Adoree’ had 10 total receptions for 138 yards and 3 TDs; 1 rush for 5 yards; 2 punt returns for 12 yards; and, 23 kick returns for 684 yards. Adoree’ showed lots of promise and, indeed, made a splash, especially with his kick return abilities.

Rounding out the top 10 was Quin Blanding, a S who signed with Virginia (lots of repeat team names at the top of this list). Quin was another one of the four true freshmen to start a game for Virginia and, in fact, was one of 10 Cavaliers to start all 12 games. Quin finished the year with 123 tackles which ranked him #2 in the ACC and #12 nationally. And, Quin led the team with 3 interceptions in the 2014 campaign. Big splash.

The number 11 recruit was Jalen Tabor, a CB signee with Florida. Jalon played in all 12 of Florida’s games in 2014 recording 31 total tackles (22 ua, 9 a) and 1 interception on the year. Jalen had a nice start to his career with Florida, worthy of splash status.

Number 12 in the class was yet another Alabama signee, ATH Bo Scarbrough. Although Bo signed with Alabama, he was not cleared to enroll in the fall due to some academic eligibility issues. Bo worked on these issues and was enrolled in Alabama in January and attended Bama practices leading up to the Sugar Bowl. No splash in 2014, but just wait.

The number 13 recruit was Raekwon McMillen, an ILB who signed with Ohio State. Raekwon played in 13 of the 14 games Ohio State played in 2014, having to sit out the Alabama contest in the Sugar Bowl. Although Raekwon did not start in any games, Ohio State has pretty good depth at linebacker, he did contribute significantly with 54 total tackles (30 ua, 24 a). Raekwon also recorded 2.5 sacks and 6.5 tackles for loss. Raekwon left no doubt in anybody’s mind that he will be a force to be reckoned with on the Ohio State defense – worthy of a splash.

Number 14 on the list was Lorenzo Carter, listed as a DE signing by Georgia. Lorenzo actually played as a linebacker for the Bulldogs, playing in all 13 games and starting in the last 5 games. Lorenzo recorded 41 total tackles (18 ua, 23 a), getting better as the season went on. Lorenzo also recorded 4.5 sacks and 7.0 tackles for loss, and he is responsible for 1 fumble recovered. Lorenzo made a splash on the Georgia defense.

And, finally, the number 15 and last of the five star recruits from the class of 2014 – and, Alabama’s fifth signee from this class, was CB Marlon Humphrey. Marlon happens to play a position that is deep at Alabama. Fellow CB recruit Tony Brown was able to find some playing time, but Marlon did not find the field in 2014. Things look good for Bama in the future with concerns to their defensive backfield, but no splashes were made in 2014 with their 5-star CB recruits.

So, all-in-all, the 2014 5-star recruits were shining pretty bright. SOD counts 9 recruits who made a splash for their teams in their true freshmen year. Two 5-stars did not find the field in 2014 – 1 red-shirt and 1 academically ineligible. And, another 5-star was injured and applied for a medical red-shirt.

But, let’s not give up on our other recruits who have yet to make the starting roster. As we celebrate the incoming class – poised to sign their LOIs tomorrow – let’s keep the love for those young men we followed so closely in 2014, 13, 12 and, in some cases, even 2011.

Have fun tomorrow and good luck with your signing class.

Colleges Represented on NFL Rosters

Today’s blog is almost an extension of yesterday’s article on “The Rich Getting Richer”.

Yesterday, we made the observation that the FBS schools on top of the Recruiting Class list are the same teams on the top of the Team Rankings at the end of the year, and, these teams seem to be pretty much the same year in and year out with little variation. Seems rather obvious, wouldn’t you say?

So, with it being a Friday and all, and, with Some Other Dude’s brain already in weekend mode, let’s make another obvious connection: One would expect that these same schools would lead the list of colleges with the most ex-players (I almost typed “graduates” – what was I thinking!?) on NFL rosters. And, you would be right. Let’s take a look.

The following table tallies the top schools in terms of players on NFL rosters; shows their current ranking in 2015 recruiting classes (according to ESPN); their ranking in most appearances in the Final AP Poll; and their final ranking in the 2014 AP poll.

Just the vicious cycle one might expect to see: do well in recruiting, and you will do well in the polls, and you will put lots of players in the NFL. And, the reverse is also true – put lots of players in the NFL and do well in the polls and it will help you with recruiting.

A few anomalies do stick out, however. Like … what is California doing so high up on the list of players on NFL rosters!? The Golden Bears do not have highly rated recruiting classes; they don’t finish in the AP Final Poll too often, and yet, they have the 11th most number of former players in the NFL. That was a little surprising.

Clemson and Texas A&M have highly rated recruiting classes for 2015 (3 & 8 respectively) but only rank 23 and 25 in number of players in the NFL.  You would expect them to start moving up that chart with the recent recruiting success they have achieved.

This chart also supports the observation made in yesterday’s blog that Oregon is a relative newcomer to the elite football programs club with a low ranking in the number of appearances in the final AP poll but high rankings in all the other categories.

This chart also seems to suggest that Miami-FL and Florida are programs that are slipping a bit of late.  Also missing from the table are Michigan, Nebraska and Penn State – all programs that rank in the top 10 for number of appearances in the final AP Poll but not in the top 15 for current NFL players. This may suggest that their fall from the top has gone on a little bit longer.

With the Super Bowl just two days away, this chart has been making its rounds through social media.

A neat little chart, but with only a two team sample it can skew the real results. A school like Rutgers can wave this banner at potential recruits as evidence that they put good players in the NFL. Even schools like Utah State and Kent State can be proud of this chart. But, when you look at the whole picture, Rutgers ranks tied for 34th with 18 players on NFL rosters; Utah State falls in at tied for 60 with 11; and, Kent State ranks tied for 70th with 9.

All of this is just fun facts to throw around while we await the Super Bowl on Sunday and Signing Day on Wednesday. The fun just never stops.

Future Schedules and Their Impacts on Making the Playoffs

Yes, Some Other Dude (SOD) was listening when Jeff Long, Chair of the FBS Playoff Selection Committee kept insisting that the Committee was not in the business of “sending messages” when making their selections, but, I think some messages, intended or not, sublimely or otherwise, were received loud and clear. And, one of the loudest messages SOD heard was, unless you are going to go undefeated, you better have a good out-of-conference schedule to play.

I know that we only have a population of 1 selection process cycle to evaluate and this thing is still morphing, but, it seems to me, that strength of schedule does matter and, especially, the strength or weakness of those out-of-conference games you play.

SOD believes that by going undefeated, ala Florida State this past year, you can overcome a relatively weak schedule, but, once you lose a game, even if the game you lose is to a very good football team, your out-of-conference schedule is going to be scrutinized and have an impact on your ranking. Arguably, both Baylor and TCU are evidence of such in 2014.

Ohio State was, at that time, a controversial pick as the 4th seed in the playoffs, largely based on their “poor loss” to a mediocre Virginia Tech squad. This loss was widely accepted as the worse loss of any team in consideration of a playoff spot. But, how can you fault a team for scheduling, not just a Power 5 opponent, but a Power 5 opponent with a history of being good? Could it be that a loss to a down-year Virginia Tech is less damaging than an out-of-conference schedule made up of SMU, Northwestern State and Buffalo, as in Baylor’s case, or Samford and SMU (I’ll give them Minnesota as being okay) in TCU’s case? Not that OSU’s out of conference schedule of the aforementioned Virginia Tech, Navy, Kent State and Cincinnati was significantly better, but, it at least included all FBS schools.

So, SOD decided to take a look in the future to see if this could possibly be a factor in upcoming seasons. Using FB Schedules.com as my information source, I do see evidence of some tougher schedules ahead, but, I also see some suspect scheduling in the near future that could damage some teams’ chances at one of the four playoff spots in closely contended races.

In particular, Baylor could find themselves in the same predicament with their current future (oximoronic, I know) schedules. Baylor’s 2015 out-of-conference schedule consists of SMU, Lamar and Rice. Really?! The 2016 schedule currently stands as Northwestern State, SMU and Rice. No better. At least in 2017 and 2018 they get Duke on the schedule, but these years also include Liberty and UTSA. And, embarrassingly, Baylor’s 2019 out-of-conference schedule has them playing Incarnate Word, UTSA and Rice! Now, SOD does not know how much flexibility there is to change all of this, but, if Baylor hopes to vie for a spot in any upcoming playoffs, they might want to make some changes.

By comparison, take a look at Big 12 conference rival Texas’s upcoming schedules. Texas is scheduled to play Notre Dame, Rice and California in 2015; Notre Dame, UTEP and California in 2016; Maryland, UCF and USC in 2017; and, Maryland, Tulsa and USC in 2018. Two Power 5 teams and a cupcake each year – MUCH BETTER than 3 cupcakes. Beyond 2018, the incomplete Texas schedules currently include the likes of LSU, Arkansas, Ohio State, and Michigan. Now this is scheduling! And, this is what SOD hopes the Playoff System entices other schools to do, as well.

All in all, there are still many holes to fill in for lots of Power 5 teams; still plenty of time to “toughen” up their schedules; but there are still too many patsies on too many schedules for SOD’s liking. The SEC, as a whole, I think, has a rather soft out-of-conference slate collectively. I think they deserve to do much better if they wish to continue to wave that banner of best conference in the land. Along with Texas, USC’s future schedules look more like that of a team with hopes of great accomplishments. This is the type of scheduling other schools should emulate.

Now. SOD does believe that there is still room for some scheduling creativity or exceptions to the rule. For example, SOD thinks, regardless of what league they are in or how good of a year they are having, scheduling any of the Military Academies should be encouraged and not count against you – just limit it to one a year. SOD also appreciates the value in scheduling regional schools, every now and then. For example, Virginia or Virginia Tech scheduling Old Dominion, William & Mary or Richmond every now and then can be forgiven – just don’t schedule two or more in the same year as Virginia Tech has done for 2018.

And, SOD does understand that schedules are set years in advance and that there is a science to the art of scheduling. It is more than just wanting to toughen up your schedule; it is a matter of availability, timing and coordination. But, SOD does want to see a trending away from so many “easy win” games for teams that have playoff aspirations.

In general, SOD hopes there are more inter-Power 5 games in out-of-conference schedules. If you can’t fill up your schedule with teams from other Power 5 conferences, you should, at least, go for other FBS schools. Although FCS schools do realize branding and financial benefits from games against FBS opponents, SOD wouldn’t mind seeing these games become a thing of the past.

And, there are some changes afoot. The B1G Ten is moving to a 9 game conference schedule in 2016 (same as the Pac-12 has today), resulting in 1 less out-of-conference game for each team. Other conferences may soon follow. Fewer out-of-conference games should result in fewer cupcake games.

Like so many other things in life, we will just have to wait and see. SOD predicts that the future schedules, as they are today, are bound to change, especially those that are 2 or more years out. I certainly hope so. Tougher games in the out-of-conference weeks to start a season should lead to more excitement and provide more common fodder by which to evaluate and rank teams at the end of the season when determining the playoff contenders. No team should be left out of a playoff spot because their schedule was too easy.

What do you think, Baylor and TCU? Regardless, I think the Big 12 having a Championship would also help your cause.