Miami Hurricanes – Season Preview

SOD is hosting a Miami Hurricanes pre/post game show for MSL-Radio.  In preparation for the season, I put together this Season Preview.

2015 Miami Hurricane’s Season Preview

There is a Hurricane Warning for Coral Gables, FL. Not one issued by the National Weather Service, but a warning issued by this sports reporter. Your warning? Be prepared for a surprise!

It is too early to tell whether this is a warning of a Good Surprise or a Bad Surprise; but, it is safe to say that the Miami Hurricanes are going to make a full-force, direct hit on Surprise. This team is tinkering on the brink of a break-out season or an all-out disaster resulting in the mandatory evacuation of the Coaching Staff.

The Hurricanes lost a lot of talent who will be playing football on Sundays this year from a team that finished with a less than stellar 6 – 7 record. That might be an ominous sign, but there appears to be enough “next-man-up” talent to steer this ship in the right direction. The problem with making an accurate forecast heading into the season is, there are just too many question marks that must be answered and answered quickly.

CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR A GOOD SURPRISE

The forecast for a good surprise starts with the man under center, Hurricane’s QB, Brad Kaaya. Last year, Brad received more A’s for his freshman year performance than he uses to spell his name. If the Hurricanes are going to enjoy a surprisingly good season this year, the young Kaaya must repeat, or even improve on, his award winning first year and completely avoid any sophomore slumping.

Of course, in 2015, there is no Duke Johnson to hand the ball off to; no blazing fast WR Phillip Dorsett or dependable TE Clive Walford to haul down passes; and, three fifths of the starting offensive line have left the building.

In replacing Johnson, the Canes HAD three potential answers, but Gus Edwards, it was recently announced, will now have to sit out the season due to an injury. So, that leaves it up to Joseph Yearby and Mark Walton to try to match Johnson’s productivity. Should this tandem realize some success at running back it should provide enough balance in the Hurricane offense to keep the opposing defenses honest and unable to simply key on Kaaya.

If the young and inexperienced front line provide enough time for Kaaya to throw the ball, there will be plenty of opportunity for Stacy Coley, Braxton Berrios, Herb Walters and/or Standish Dobard to make a name for themselves in the passing game.

The 2014 Hurricane Defense put up some impressive numbers, finishing ranked 14th nationally in total defense, but lapses against the better teams they faced suggest that they were not really all that good. Now, subtract Denzel Perryman, Anthony Chickillo and Olsen Pierre from the equation and you get the same thing you find everywhere else … question marks. But, the defensive backfield looks to be in capable hands with Deon Bush, Corn Elder and Artie Burns. If defensive ends Chad Thomas and Al-Quadin Muhammad and weak-side linebacker Jermaine Grace have break-out years the defense can help contribute to the pleasant surprise.

Another contributing factor to a positive forecast is the fact that Miami is not the only ACC team with a shipload of question marks. The Winston years are over at Florida State and the ACC seems ripe for a new king. A few bounces go the right way and this young Cane team avoids the penalties and mistakes that have plagued Al Golden’s teams the past few years and, who knows … this just might be the conditions favorable for a perfect storm that lands the Canes in the ACC Championship Game! It just might happen.

CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR A BAD SURPRISE

The forecast for a bad surprise focuses squarely on the trenches. If the offensive line and defensive front seven cannot whip into shape by the time the Canes host Nebraska in week 3, that game might mark the beginning of the end of the Al Golden era.
No matter how spectacular Kaaya is; no matter whether one or both running backs prove to be the second coming of Duke Johnson, if the offensive line cannot open up lanes and cannot give Kaaya 3 Mississippi’s to find his receivers, this could be a long and painful season in Coral Gables.

The Hurricanes open up the season with a cupcake and a pushover. The two games against Bethune-Cookman and FAU should be little more than tough scrimmages against jerseys of a different color. These games should allow the young Hurricanes to gain some experience, get some confidence and position this team to make a run at the ACC Coastal Title, but then the tests start for real.

The string of games between Nebraska, Cincinnati, FSU, Virginia Tech and Clemson will either make or break this Hurricane squad. If they come out of October in good shape – look for that Good Surprise storm to hit. If they hit bumps along the way, given the hot seat that the head coach is perched on, the wheels are likely to fall of the bus and the downhill slide might not be pretty.

CONCLUSIONS

So, where does this leave us? Well, your guess is as good as mine. The 2015 season is either going to be the season that we remember as the turning point for Al Golden and the Hurricanes or the season that leaves us searching for the next captain of our ship.

One thing is for sure however, whichever way it goes, it’s likely to be a surprise. You have been warned!

Pipelines to the NFL

I realize that with the start of the Free Agency period yesterday this is a fluid situation, but SOD took a look at every NFL Team’s active roster to see if there was any evidence of a “pipeline” of sorts from one college team to one NFL Team. What we found is not too surprising.

Most NFL teams, of course, have a pretty diverse mixture of players from all over the place. Atlanta, Baltimore, and Cleveland, in fact, had no more than 2 players from the same school listed on their active roster on 3/10/2015. Fourteen other teams had no more than three players from the same school listed as part of their player profile. But, 1 team had 7 players who played on the same college team in their collegiate career; can you guess which NFL Team and which college has this connection?

Think of a NFL Team with a head coach who recently came over from a successful college program. That’s right – the Philadelphia Eagles have 7 players on their active roster who played college ball at Oregon. Like I said, not surprising.

No other team has any more than 5 players from the same school. Cincinnati has 5 players each from Alabama and Georgia – could make for a fun locker room following a certain SEC football game. Dallas lists 5 players from Oklahoma State on its roster; Arizona has 5 former Clemson players on its roster; and, with Russell Wilson listing the Badgers as his collegiate tie, Seattle has 5 from Wisconsin.

Colleges that have placed 4 players on the same NFL team include: Utah with 4 players at Miami; Illinois and Rutgers each have 4 players on New England’s roster; Stanford has 4 Cardinal currently listed on Indianapolis’ roster; there are 4 players from Miami-FL playing for Jacksonville – makes sense; there are currently 4 players from Tennessee playing for Kansas City; 4 Orange from Syracuse are listed as New York Giants; Notre Dame has 4 each with Minnesota and Detroit; USC also has 4 players with the Vikings; the Crimson Tide has 4 ex-Alabama players listed on Green Bay’s active roster; and, 4 players from Auburn are currently getting paid to play for St. Louis.

Based on the high numbers of players some of the big-time schools have playing in the NFL, you would expect to see some clumping on NFL Teams just through the law of averages, but, for the most part, they are pretty evenly spread throughout the league. The further Chip Kelly gets removed from his personal ties with the players from Oregon, you might expect to see that one existing, prominent “pipeline” start to dwindle.

So, no real surprises, but it was fun looking into it.

Trivia Tuesday – Power 5 Conferences

In recent years, there has been a lot of shuffling of College Football Conferences. And, if you believe Some Other Dude, there is more yet to come as we advance upon the age of the Mega-Conferences. But, SOD wonders, how well do you know the history of the current Power 5 Conferences?

THE TRIVIA CHALLENGE

Name the original teams in each of the current Power 5 Conferences.

THE BUFFER ZONE

THE ANSWERS

The Atlantic Coast Conference.  Even though we appear to be headed to 16 team Mega-Conferences, back in history there was an even mega-er conference; the Southern Conference.  The Southern Conference, at one time, consisted of 23 teams and eventually splintered into other, smaller conferences.  One of those splinter conferences was the ACC which officially formed as a conference in 1953.  The 7 charter members of the ACC were: Clemson, Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, North Carolina State, South Carolina and Wake Forest.  Only South Carolina no longer calls the ACC home as they eventually joined the other splinter conference with former Southern Conference brethren.  Link to information source.

The Big 12.  The history of the Big 12 is a little more convoluted than that of the other conferences.  The Big 12 itself wasn’t formed until 1994 when teams from the Big 8 merged with teams from the Southwest Conference.  The Big 8 Conference was originally chartered in 1907 as the Missouri Valley Intercollegiate Athletic Association and eventually became known as the Big 6 and then grew up to become the Big 8.  The original members of this conference were: Iowa (two-timing with the Big Ten), Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska and Washington University in St. Louis.  Only Kansas remains as a current member of The Big 12.  Link to information source.  The Southwest Conference was first formed in 1912, consisting of: Arkansas, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Rice, Texas and Texas A&M.  Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas remain as current members of the Big 12.  Link to information source.

The Big Ten.  The name “The Big Ten” was actually not officially incorporated until 1987, but the conference referred to as the Big Ten has been around since 1905.  The original conference was made up of 7 teams in what was known as the “Intercollegiate Conference Athletic Association”.  In 1917, when the conference had expanded to 10 teams, it was labeled the “Big Ten” by members of the media.  The original members of this so-called Big Ten Conference were: Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Purdue, University of Chicago and Wisconsin.  Only the University of Chicago is not a member of that conference today.  Link to information source.

The Pac 12.  The Pac 12 Conference started off as a little seedling conference that eventually grew up into the Pac 12.  Forming in 1916 as the Pacific Coast Conference, its original members stood at only 4 schools: California, Oregon, Oregon Agricultural College (later known as Oregon State) and Washington.  All four schools still remain in the conference today.  Interestingly, Idaho and Montana were one time members of this conference and the conference was disbanded and re-assembled in 1959 due to a pay-for-play scandal.  The re-formed conference was called the Athletic Association of Western Universities, commonly known as the Big 5. After growing once again, the conference started being referred to as the Pacific 8 in 1964 and officially became the Pacific 8 in 1968, the Pac 10 in 1978 and the Pac 12 in 2011.  Link to information source.

The SEC.  The SEC preceded the ACC in splintering away from the huge Southern Conference when 13 schools left in 1932 to form their own conference.  The 13 schools that made up the first version of the Southeastern Conference were: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Kentucky, LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Sewanee (University of the South), Tennessee, Tulane and Vanderbilt.  Georgia Tech now resides in the ACC; Tulane, although still an FBS school is no longer a member of a Power 5 Conference; and, Sewanee, after having decided to de-emphasize sports in 1940, currently competes in Division III athletics.  Link to information source.

Conference Changes 2015 – The Eye of the Storm

Over the past few years the landscape of college football, with regards to conference membership, has been in flux. You practically needed a Playbill in recent years as a reminder of changes in the cast.

SOD is still trying to get used to Boston College, Syracuse, Pittsburgh and, as of this past year, Louisville playing in the ACC (somehow, Miami seems a natural fit). Missouri still seems odd showing up so many times on SEC football fields – and who suspected the Tigers to be winning the SEC East every year? And, although they had way better than expected seasons in their first year in the B1G Ten, Maryland and Rutgers seems out of place amongst the Ohio States, Michigans and Wisconsins of the football world. Heck, SOD is still trying to get used to Big Red in the B1G Ten.

What with the Big 12 being left out of the playoff party in 2014, with some pointing to their lack of a conference championship, at least somewhat, contributing to that decision and the visions SOD has of a future world of Mega Conferences (see yesterday’s blog article), it would not be surprising to see more flux down the road. As such, the 2015 football season appears to be the eye of the storm. Just a few minor adjustments to two mid-major conferences are in store for this coming year, nothing too confusing and nothing to get too excited about.

As of 2015, the Midshipmen from Navy leave the ranks of Independent football teams and will be participating in the American Athletic Conference (AAC). This looked like a more promising move a few years back when it was still the Big East, but, SOD believes, a good move for Navy nonetheless. Navy should be competitive in this league and, being a conference member should ease scheduling concerns that mid-major Independents have to deal with. With 8 conference games on the schedule each year, and the other two military academies, Navy only needs to secure 2 other games each season – much easier than finding 10 schools to compete against each year (the 2 academies are a given).

The only other conference changes occur in Conference USA which loses one team and gains another. SOD is sorry to see the University of Alabama–Birmingham fold the football tents. Although the past few years have not been kind to the Blazers, UAB does have a history of successful football campaigns to look back upon. Besides that, losing UAB loses one of the best football logos for FBS. Although the move of adding UNC-Charlotte to the league was not intended to be a replacement for anybody, that is, in effect, what happens. As the league bids good-bye to the Blazers, the 49ers move up from the FCS to start a new chapter in their football lore in C-USA. This could be a rather difficult challenge for the 49ers to start off. Charlotte had a tough enough time with a very manageable FCS schedule in 2014, finishing 5 – 6. Things will only get tougher in the C-USA. But, brick by brick, as they say. We will see if the 49ers can start to compete in years to come.

So, that’s it. Minor adjustments. Which is fine for now, as far as SOD is concerned. Another year to get used to Rutgers and Maryland in the B1G Ten. Another year for the Big 12 to plan their next move – they just have to grow large enough to host a Conference Championship Game, don’t you think? And, another year for SOD’s crystal ball vision to start to clear up. BYU and Notre Dame need to find a conference to call home and Boise State needs a big boy conference to play in.

Just the eye of the storm, my friends; the winds of change are just on the other side.

Colleges Represented on NFL Rosters

Today’s blog is almost an extension of yesterday’s article on “The Rich Getting Richer”.

Yesterday, we made the observation that the FBS schools on top of the Recruiting Class list are the same teams on the top of the Team Rankings at the end of the year, and, these teams seem to be pretty much the same year in and year out with little variation. Seems rather obvious, wouldn’t you say?

So, with it being a Friday and all, and, with Some Other Dude’s brain already in weekend mode, let’s make another obvious connection: One would expect that these same schools would lead the list of colleges with the most ex-players (I almost typed “graduates” – what was I thinking!?) on NFL rosters. And, you would be right. Let’s take a look.

The following table tallies the top schools in terms of players on NFL rosters; shows their current ranking in 2015 recruiting classes (according to ESPN); their ranking in most appearances in the Final AP Poll; and their final ranking in the 2014 AP poll.

Just the vicious cycle one might expect to see: do well in recruiting, and you will do well in the polls, and you will put lots of players in the NFL. And, the reverse is also true – put lots of players in the NFL and do well in the polls and it will help you with recruiting.

A few anomalies do stick out, however. Like … what is California doing so high up on the list of players on NFL rosters!? The Golden Bears do not have highly rated recruiting classes; they don’t finish in the AP Final Poll too often, and yet, they have the 11th most number of former players in the NFL. That was a little surprising.

Clemson and Texas A&M have highly rated recruiting classes for 2015 (3 & 8 respectively) but only rank 23 and 25 in number of players in the NFL.  You would expect them to start moving up that chart with the recent recruiting success they have achieved.

This chart also supports the observation made in yesterday’s blog that Oregon is a relative newcomer to the elite football programs club with a low ranking in the number of appearances in the final AP poll but high rankings in all the other categories.

This chart also seems to suggest that Miami-FL and Florida are programs that are slipping a bit of late.  Also missing from the table are Michigan, Nebraska and Penn State – all programs that rank in the top 10 for number of appearances in the final AP Poll but not in the top 15 for current NFL players. This may suggest that their fall from the top has gone on a little bit longer.

With the Super Bowl just two days away, this chart has been making its rounds through social media.

A neat little chart, but with only a two team sample it can skew the real results. A school like Rutgers can wave this banner at potential recruits as evidence that they put good players in the NFL. Even schools like Utah State and Kent State can be proud of this chart. But, when you look at the whole picture, Rutgers ranks tied for 34th with 18 players on NFL rosters; Utah State falls in at tied for 60 with 11; and, Kent State ranks tied for 70th with 9.

All of this is just fun facts to throw around while we await the Super Bowl on Sunday and Signing Day on Wednesday. The fun just never stops.