High Impact Freshman in 2015

There are several “perfect storm” factors that come into play resulting in a “high impact” freshman in big time college football. First, of course, you have to be good … real good. But, being good is not enough¸ you also have to have opportunity. There are plenty of real good freshman football players who, not only will not make an impact in year one, but will never even see the field in year one because there are better, more experienced football players ahead of them. Even though we, as fans, love to see that high impact freshman come into our program, it is often the sign that our favorite team has a “depth” problem at that position. It isn’t always a good sign that those highly touted, incoming freshmen are in the starting lineup in year one.

These young men also must make an adjustment, not just to the differences between high school and college football, but also an adjustment in their living environments, social lives, scholastic lives, etc. This life changing experience can make it difficult for some young men to assume the role of football superstar in their first year away from home. The ability to and time it takes to adjust to these all around changes have an impact on the first year football field performances of some of these young men. That is why many “high impact freshmen” are really red-shirt freshmen with 12 or more months under their belt adjusting to their new world order. Now, the newly popular, early enrollment path many college football players are taking helps prepare some of these young men to assume a starting role in their true freshman year, but that “opportunity” ingredient still needs to be there.

So, any list of “Potential Top Impact Freshmen” should not be confused with a list of “Best Incoming Freshmen”. Some of the best incoming freshmen will just have to wait their turn before making an impact. Having said all that, here is the short list of young men SOD is expecting to make a high level impact in the FBS.

The 3 young men whose names rise to the top of almost everyone’s list are:

• Byron Cowart, DE, Auburn
• Malik Jefferson, LB, Texas
• Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA

I suspect Byron and Malik to be monsters on the defensive side of the ball, but, given the position he plays, I am most curious about how Josh Rosen makes out in his freshman year at UCLA. The opportunity, it appears, is there for all three of these ballers, but, how they adjust to college life and how quickly they learn the system and earn a spot in the starting lineup is yet to be seen.

Three more young men that also appear likely to have an immediate impact in 2015 are:

• Trent Thompson, DL, Georgia
• Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama
• Martiz Ivey, OL, Florida

Like noted earlier, the fact that these three are all on SEC teams either indicates that the SEC has a recruiting advantage (which, they probably do) or that SEC teams have more holes to fill (which, they probably do).

SOD believes those 6 names above have the most likely chance of being first year stars in 2015, but significant playing time and significant impact could also come from any or all of these young men, as well:

• Iman Marshall, DB, USC
• Kahlil McKenzie, DT, Tennessee
• Canton Kaumatule, DL, Oregon
• Derwin James, S, Florida State
• Solomon Thomas, DL, Stanford
• Daylon Mack, DT, Texas A&M
• Kevin Tolliver, CB, LSU

Now, the chances are that the real impact freshmen come from out of the blue and off of this list. Those less highly recruited young men that outperform their expectations or that are afforded opportunities to excel due to injuries, suspensions or other reasons that put them into the starting lineup. Those stories will develop as the season plays out. And, those are the stories we will be looking for.

Whereas, we do expect big things from the names on our list, just by being names on the list puts high expectations on these young men, some of whom might not be ready for that pressure. But, we will see and we can’t wait to watch.

And, don’t be upset of your rooting interest does not have a name on this (or anyone else’s) list – it may simply mean you’ve already got the talent on your team to win today without a new freshman superstar contributing a high impact to the results.

Pre-Season to Post Season #1s

So would anyone be surprised if all of the pre-season College Football polls has THE Ohio State Buckeyes ranked number 1 this year? It seems like a foregone conclusion. With the way the Buckeyes finished last year; and, with the fact that they have much of their roster returning this year, they seem to be a lock. Don’t they?

But, Some Other Dude wonders, doesn’t that happen a lot? I mean, every year, the champion from the previous year must certainly stay number 1 going into the next year. Right? I guess if they are losing their quarterback or some stud running back or a large number of starters, maybe not. But, I wonder.

So, we took a look back into time.

Since the 2002 season, there have been 6 times when the previous season’s #1 was ranked #1 to start the next season. That’s 50% (or, half, for those of you who attended non-Ivy League schools – just kidding) of the time. But, how often does that team finish the year still (or, back) on top?

The chart below shows the Pre-Season and Post-Season #1 teams as ranked by the AP and USA Today polls since 2002. The team that finished #1 in 2003, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2013 and 2014 entered the next year as the Pre-Season #1 Team. Only USC finished that follow-up season as the #1 in 2004.

That table also shows just how hard it is to pick the ultimate Champion in a Pre-Season poll. That one year that USC repeated as the Champion is only 1 of 2 times that the polls got it right with the Pre-Season rankings. Interestingly enough, the year that Alabama repeated as National Champions, they were not ranked #1 in the year following their previous Championship season.

In fact, the preseason #1 team finished outside of the Top 5 at the end of the season 50% of the time. And, the eventual champion was ranked below #10 in the pre-season polls 3 times.

So, yes, Ohio State will be a unanimous #1 in the pre-season polls this year, but, history seems to suggest it is still too early to pencil them into even the four team playoff, yet. There is still hope for non-Buckeye fans out there. But, they sure do look strong, don’t they?

Pipelines to the NFL

I realize that with the start of the Free Agency period yesterday this is a fluid situation, but SOD took a look at every NFL Team’s active roster to see if there was any evidence of a “pipeline” of sorts from one college team to one NFL Team. What we found is not too surprising.

Most NFL teams, of course, have a pretty diverse mixture of players from all over the place. Atlanta, Baltimore, and Cleveland, in fact, had no more than 2 players from the same school listed on their active roster on 3/10/2015. Fourteen other teams had no more than three players from the same school listed as part of their player profile. But, 1 team had 7 players who played on the same college team in their collegiate career; can you guess which NFL Team and which college has this connection?

Think of a NFL Team with a head coach who recently came over from a successful college program. That’s right – the Philadelphia Eagles have 7 players on their active roster who played college ball at Oregon. Like I said, not surprising.

No other team has any more than 5 players from the same school. Cincinnati has 5 players each from Alabama and Georgia – could make for a fun locker room following a certain SEC football game. Dallas lists 5 players from Oklahoma State on its roster; Arizona has 5 former Clemson players on its roster; and, with Russell Wilson listing the Badgers as his collegiate tie, Seattle has 5 from Wisconsin.

Colleges that have placed 4 players on the same NFL team include: Utah with 4 players at Miami; Illinois and Rutgers each have 4 players on New England’s roster; Stanford has 4 Cardinal currently listed on Indianapolis’ roster; there are 4 players from Miami-FL playing for Jacksonville – makes sense; there are currently 4 players from Tennessee playing for Kansas City; 4 Orange from Syracuse are listed as New York Giants; Notre Dame has 4 each with Minnesota and Detroit; USC also has 4 players with the Vikings; the Crimson Tide has 4 ex-Alabama players listed on Green Bay’s active roster; and, 4 players from Auburn are currently getting paid to play for St. Louis.

Based on the high numbers of players some of the big-time schools have playing in the NFL, you would expect to see some clumping on NFL Teams just through the law of averages, but, for the most part, they are pretty evenly spread throughout the league. The further Chip Kelly gets removed from his personal ties with the players from Oregon, you might expect to see that one existing, prominent “pipeline” start to dwindle.

So, no real surprises, but it was fun looking into it.

Trivia Tuesday – Power 5 Conferences

In recent years, there has been a lot of shuffling of College Football Conferences. And, if you believe Some Other Dude, there is more yet to come as we advance upon the age of the Mega-Conferences. But, SOD wonders, how well do you know the history of the current Power 5 Conferences?

THE TRIVIA CHALLENGE

Name the original teams in each of the current Power 5 Conferences.

THE BUFFER ZONE

THE ANSWERS

The Atlantic Coast Conference.  Even though we appear to be headed to 16 team Mega-Conferences, back in history there was an even mega-er conference; the Southern Conference.  The Southern Conference, at one time, consisted of 23 teams and eventually splintered into other, smaller conferences.  One of those splinter conferences was the ACC which officially formed as a conference in 1953.  The 7 charter members of the ACC were: Clemson, Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, North Carolina State, South Carolina and Wake Forest.  Only South Carolina no longer calls the ACC home as they eventually joined the other splinter conference with former Southern Conference brethren.  Link to information source.

The Big 12.  The history of the Big 12 is a little more convoluted than that of the other conferences.  The Big 12 itself wasn’t formed until 1994 when teams from the Big 8 merged with teams from the Southwest Conference.  The Big 8 Conference was originally chartered in 1907 as the Missouri Valley Intercollegiate Athletic Association and eventually became known as the Big 6 and then grew up to become the Big 8.  The original members of this conference were: Iowa (two-timing with the Big Ten), Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska and Washington University in St. Louis.  Only Kansas remains as a current member of The Big 12.  Link to information source.  The Southwest Conference was first formed in 1912, consisting of: Arkansas, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Rice, Texas and Texas A&M.  Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas remain as current members of the Big 12.  Link to information source.

The Big Ten.  The name “The Big Ten” was actually not officially incorporated until 1987, but the conference referred to as the Big Ten has been around since 1905.  The original conference was made up of 7 teams in what was known as the “Intercollegiate Conference Athletic Association”.  In 1917, when the conference had expanded to 10 teams, it was labeled the “Big Ten” by members of the media.  The original members of this so-called Big Ten Conference were: Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State, Purdue, University of Chicago and Wisconsin.  Only the University of Chicago is not a member of that conference today.  Link to information source.

The Pac 12.  The Pac 12 Conference started off as a little seedling conference that eventually grew up into the Pac 12.  Forming in 1916 as the Pacific Coast Conference, its original members stood at only 4 schools: California, Oregon, Oregon Agricultural College (later known as Oregon State) and Washington.  All four schools still remain in the conference today.  Interestingly, Idaho and Montana were one time members of this conference and the conference was disbanded and re-assembled in 1959 due to a pay-for-play scandal.  The re-formed conference was called the Athletic Association of Western Universities, commonly known as the Big 5. After growing once again, the conference started being referred to as the Pacific 8 in 1964 and officially became the Pacific 8 in 1968, the Pac 10 in 1978 and the Pac 12 in 2011.  Link to information source.

The SEC.  The SEC preceded the ACC in splintering away from the huge Southern Conference when 13 schools left in 1932 to form their own conference.  The 13 schools that made up the first version of the Southeastern Conference were: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Kentucky, LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Sewanee (University of the South), Tennessee, Tulane and Vanderbilt.  Georgia Tech now resides in the ACC; Tulane, although still an FBS school is no longer a member of a Power 5 Conference; and, Sewanee, after having decided to de-emphasize sports in 1940, currently competes in Division III athletics.  Link to information source.

2015 Playoff – SOD’s 1st Predictions

Here it is, February 23, way too early to make predictions about the 2015 College Football season, and yet, it seems, everyone already has.  So SOD, with his brand new college football blog, has decided to enter the fray with my very first college football prediction.  No better way to earn or tarnish your credibility than to make predictions that prove, by way of luck, to be accurate or, by way of misfortune, to make you look like an idiot.  So, here we go, SODs prediction of the four teams to land in the second FBS playoff.

Two of my picks show up on many other prognosticators’ picks and two picks are much less popular.

Ohio State.  This is an easy pick to make.  The reigning champs and winners of the inaugural FBS playoffs almost didn’t make it into the 2014 format.  But, the Buckeyes proved to be deserving of the selection and won out with a third string QB leading the way in two rather dominating performances.  Urban Meyer’s squad returns lots of experience on both sides of the ball and just seems built to repeat.  The one concern about the Buckeyes is … complacency.  After riding a year on the Champions horse, it is sometimes hard to get that motivation and drive to where it needs be.  That is Coach Meyer’s job – to make sure that doesn’t happen.  The schedule looks to be in Ohio State’s favor and they will enter the season odds on favorites for a repeat selection to the playoffs.

TCU.  Like Ohio State, the Horned Frogs are returning a very seasoned football squad, all wearing that “we should have been in the 2014 playoffs” chip on their shoulder.  No concerns about complacency here; the Horned Frogs will come into the 2015 season with something to prove and the bitter taste of being left out of last year’s party in their mouths.  SOD likes TCU’s chances this year and their schedule looks pretty manageable for achieving that end.

And now, here is where SOD varies from the beaten path.  Alabama and USC appear to be the next two teams showing up on the majority of the playoff prediction pages, but, although solid picks, SOD believes that Alabama is just losing too much talent, again, and SOD is not yet a Sarkisian believer.  Whereas, it will not be a surprise to see Alabama and USC fill out the remainder of the 2015 playoff slate, SOD is going with a couple of long shots.

Georgia.  Although the Bulldogs will be breaking in a new QB and they have a way of disappointing their fans year after year with high expectations, SOD is going to roll the dice and predict that the bad luck and injuries of previous seasons abandon the Bulldogs and pave the way for a surprising trip to the playoffs.  The SEC West teams will continue to beat each other up throughout the regular season and limp into the SEC Championship Game against an SEC East winner that is less beat up.  The East Champion will win the Championship Game and sneak into the playoffs after going all year outside of the Selection Committee’s top 4.

Stanford.  Like Georgia, Sanford will start from back in the pack of ranked teams and slowly play their way into contention behind QB Kevin Hogan and a strong defense.  The Ducks will still be competitive with a very capable QB moving in from Eastern Washington to replace Marcus Mariota, but the Cardinal will win the head to head and face a very competitive Pac 12 South Team in the Championship Game as the springboard into the playoffs.

In 2015, the ACC will be left sitting on the sidelines moaning that their champion deserves to be in – but that team will not stand out enough to win over the selection committee.  There are plenty of other teams that will sit at or near the top of the selection committee’s list throughout the year, but, once the conference championships are over, these four teams will be the ones left standing, or, at least, that’s the way SOD sees it on February 23.  Two front-runners and two long-shots.  A credible pick or proof that SOD is an idiot.  Now we just have to sit back and watch the cake bake.

2014 – A Look back at the Hail Marys

Arguably, there is no play in football (college, pro or ortherwise) more exciting than the Hail Mary pass. Although the term “Hail Mary pass” is largely attributed to Roger Staubach when he said, in an interview following a Dallas Cowboy’s last second touchdown pass to Drew Pearson in a 1975 playoff game against the Minnesota Vikings, “I closed my eyes and said a Hail Mary”, the term can be traced back to the 1930’s, used mostly by Catholic schools, to refer to any desperate play that had little chance of success.

Regardless of the origins of the term, the 2014 college football season seemed to have more than its fair share of these miraculous, game tying or game ending plays. SOD takes a look back at some of those 2014 Hail Marys. (Click on the links provided to see them for yourself.)

August 30 – Jackson State v Florida A & M. No penalty for not knowing about or remembering this one that occurred on the first week of the season between to FCS schools. In this game, FAMU took the lead in the 4th quarter with just 46 seconds remaining in the game to set up Jackson State’s game winning 60 yard Hail Mary from LaMontiez Ivy to DeSean McKenzie. Watch it here.

September 20 – Arizona v California. In an early season in-Conference football game between these two Pac 12 teams, Arizona capped off an amazing 4th quarter comeback with a 47 yard prayer from Anu Solomon to Austin Hill which soon became known as the Hill Mary pass. Watch it here.

October 4 – Arizona St v USC. In another Pac 12 contest, Arizona State’s Mike Bercovici completed a Sun Devil 4th quarter comeback when he heaved a 46 yard pass to Jaelen Strong as time ran out, to defeat then #16 ranked USC 38 – 34. Watch it here.

December 4 – UCF v East Carolina. Central Florida ended an amazing East Carolina, 4th quarter comeback with some amazement of their own when Justin Holman launched a game winning, 51 yard bomb to Breshad Perriman to pull off a 32 – 30 victory over the Pirates. Watch it here.

December 24 – Popeyes Bahamas Bowl – Central Michigan v Western Kentucky. This amazing Hail Mary pass, multiple laterals and run, was followed up by a failed two-point conversion that ended in a loss for Central Michigan. A Hail Mary followed by a Hail No, if you will. It deserves mention any way because of the spectacular nature of this particular play and surely must qualify as a Hail Mary pass, despite the outcome of the game. The Chippewas could have capped off an unbelievable comeback in this game by tying it and going into OT, but, decided to tempt faith and missed the conversion. Because it was a bowl game, SOD can live with the decision. Watch it here.

There were a few other spectacular Hail Marys that ended first halves in 2014, but those listed above are enough to make 2014 the year of the Hail Mary. SOD can hardly wait to see what 2015 has in store.

Jimmys and Joes

If you are a college football fan then you have probably heard the adage, “College football is not about the X’s and O’s; its all about the Jimmys and Joes”. Well, a lot of the Jimmys and Joes fell into place yesterday as National Signing Day 2015 finally arrived and recruits sent in their Letters of Intent (LOI) to the colleges and universities they will call home for the next 2 – 4 years, or so. Now, we will have to wait and see who actually got the right Jimmys and Joes.

In the final analyses, the number of stars the recruits bring with them won’t necessarily be the determining factor. Each class has only about 15 – 20 five star recruits – so, obviously, not enough to go around. Just how much separates a 4-star from a 5-star, or a 3 from a 4, is hard to say and is just a judgment call from self-labeled experts. Each individual coaching staff does their own evaluation and has their own inside-the-program ranking for each recruit. Also, coaches are looking beyond what recruit ranking sites look at and try to determine if the potential recruit is, what some coaches like to label, “our kinda guy” – an OKG.

The OKG is that young man who, above and beyond knowing how to play football and may already play in a system somewhat similar to the one the college employs, but also shares the values of the program; is willing to be coached; and has, as far as the coaching staff can determine, the mental and emotional maturity to fit right in and be a productive member of the football family – as a key contributor or otherwise.

Yes, the 4 and 5 star recruits garner the attention and receive the most applause and acclaim. And, more times than not, those 4 and 5 star recruits become the young men who form a solid foundation for elite football programs each year, but, SOD believes that what separates a good team from a great team are those who get the most out of their 2 and 3 star guys. Everybody fights hard to get those 4 and 5 star recruits and persuade them to commit, but the real science and the advantage gained is in finding those diamond in the rough guys, those 2s and 3s that you know you can develop into value-added contributors on your football team.

Chris Petersen (and his predecessors and successors) put together a nice little program at Boise State by finding those 2 and 3 star recruits who fit their system and were OKGs. Now Coach Petersen is going to try to do the same with, hopefully, 4 and 5 star recruits at Washington to regain some Husky glory.

Meanwhile, Boise State continues to excel with their OKGs. According to Rivals.com, the 2015 Boise State recruiting class comes in at #64. The Broncos class of ’14 was ranked #65; the ’13 class was #62; the ’12 class was #54 – and, yet, Boise State finished 2014 ranked #16 in the AP Poll and finished ranked #18 in 2012 – so, something is working with those Jimmys and Joes. This either suggests that there is something Xs and Os bring to the table or the real value of your coaching staff is their ability to get the most out of the Jimmys and Joes who do play for you.

So, as we tie a bow on the 2015 Recruiting class – with everyone but ‘Bama fans sick and tired of seeing the Crimson Tide ranked #1 again – coaching staffs are already knee deep into working on the 2016 class. Almost every coach interviewed yesterday on one of the numerous shows covering National Signing Day indicated that they already have recruit visits scheduled for the rest of this week to meet next years’ prospective recruits. Although it feels like Signing Day ends one cycle and starts another, don’t be fooled. Your top-of-the-heap programs are already well into the Class of 2016 – just look at those teams who finished ranked in the Top 5 this year.

According to ESPN’s Recruiting Nation,
• Alabama already has 3 verbal commitments for their 2016 class.
• Florida State has 7.
• USC has 3.
• Clemson has 7.
• Tennessee has 8.

It never ends.

The recruiting game is just one fun aspect of what separates college football from the NFL. And, it is what makes coaching this game a full-time job. The college football off-season is that proverbial duck on a pond (no, not an Oregon Duck), it looks smooth and easy on the surface, but there is a lot of energy and movement going on underneath.

Good luck to all you Jimmys and Joes; SOD hopes your college decisions work out well for you and your university.

A Look Back on the 2014 5-Star Recruits

You know, it wasn’t that long ago when most of us would not have been aware tomorrow is Signing Day for High School seniors to sign their Letters of Intent (LOI) with the colleges and universities they planned to attend in the coming fall. My how things have changed.

Now, there are subscription web-sites with 100s of thousands of subscribers, chat rooms full of discussions, rankings of stars all over the place and television stations with all day coverage of the faxes coming in. Just amazing!

And, this changes the landscape a little bit. The attention some of these high school kids get is both phenomenal and disgusting. There are thousands of people following their every move on social networking sites. There are press conferences set up in high school gyms and the, sometimes infamous, selection of the hat. Just unbelievable. And, Some Other Dude is caught up in it just like the rest of you.

One interesting phenomena, I think, that comes out of this is the “flavor of the month” aspect. We follow our teams’ recruiting efforts; see who made verbal commitments and how many stars they wear. We know the names and statistics for hundreds of kids and have seen video for dozens of them. We have high hopes for many who have yet to even enroll in the school, yet alone played one down of college football. Then, signing day comes, we get all excited, re-read the profiles of the kids who did sign the dotted line and then start looking at next year’s prospects – the new flavors.

Then, the kids who were in the spotlights the year before get red-shirted, get injured, can’t adjust to the new environment, or are just buried in the depth chart and are, so it seems, quickly forgotten. We seem to expect the new year’s recruits to unseat last years’ recruits just because they didn’t immediately become superstars, or even starters. And, because we started following these kids back in their junior years in high school, if they don’t start on the college team before they are juniors there, we forget about them completely and write them off as busts. Funny how that works.

So, SOD wonders, how many 5 stars actually make a big splash on campus their freshmen year? Lets take a look at last year’s class.

According to ESPN, the 2014 Recruiting Class included 15, 5 star recruits.

The number 1 recruit, RB Leonard Fournette lived up to the hype and, actually, did make a splash with LSU. Leonard carried the ball 187 times for 1,034 yards with 10 TDs and had 7 receptions for 127 yards. A good year that ended with a 143 yards rushing effort against Notre Dame in the Music City Bowl. No one will be forgetting Leonard Fournette any time soon. Splash.

The number 2 ranked recruit was Jabrill Peppers, a DB who signed with Michigan. Jabrill had a tough first year at Michigan. He played sparingly in the first four games before being sidelined by injury and applying for a medical red-shirt. Jabrill totaled 8 tackles in 2014. No splash.

Coming in at number 3 was Cameron Robinson an OT who signed with Alabama. Offensive line is typically a position that requires time to make the first team on the depth chart, and often, those recruits who are most easily forgotten. Cam, however, lived up to his billing and started in all 14 of Alabama’s games. Splash.

Number 4 was DE Myles Garrett who signed with Texas A & M. Myles had a terrific freshmen year for the Aggies leading the team in QB sacks (11.0), tackles for loss (12.5) and QB hurries (9) while also being 2nd amongst defensive linemen with 50 tackles. Splash.

Number 5 was Andrew Brown, a DT signing with Virginia. Andrew was one of four true freshmen to see playing time with the Cavaliers, appearing in 6 games, including the final 4 games. Andrew amassed 4 tackles in his playing time. It certainly is an accomplishment for a true freshman to find the playing field, but, there was no splash here.

The number 6 ranked recruit, according to ESPN, was Da’Shawn Hand, a DE who signed with Alabama. As a true freshmen, Da’Shawn played in 9 games and recorded 7 total tackles (4 unassisted, 3 assisted). Again, quite an accomplishment to find playing time on a team that competed for the National Championship, but not a splash … yet.

Number 7 in the class of 2014 was Speedy Noil, listed as an ATH, who signed with Texas A&M. Like fellow Texas A&M signee, Myles Garrett, Speedy had a terrific first year for the Aggies. Speedy performed as a receiver and return man throughout the year. Speedy led the Aggies in all-purpose yards, punt return yards and kickoff return yards despite missing a game due to injury. Speedy amassed 559 yards on 44 receptions with 5 TDs; 575 yards on 24 kickoff returns (24.0 avg); and, 178 yards on 14 punt returns (12.7 avg). All in all, a nice splash.

The number 8 recruit was Tony Brown, a CB who signed with Alabama (man, I’m beginning to see a pattern here – the SEC killed it!). Tony played in 13 games, starting 2 (games 4 and 5). Tony recorded 10 total tackles (7 ua, 3 a). A good start to a promising career, but not quite splash status.

Coming in at number 9 was Adoree’ Jackson, a WR signing with USC. Adoree’ played in all 13 Trojan games, starting the last 9. Adoree’ had 10 total receptions for 138 yards and 3 TDs; 1 rush for 5 yards; 2 punt returns for 12 yards; and, 23 kick returns for 684 yards. Adoree’ showed lots of promise and, indeed, made a splash, especially with his kick return abilities.

Rounding out the top 10 was Quin Blanding, a S who signed with Virginia (lots of repeat team names at the top of this list). Quin was another one of the four true freshmen to start a game for Virginia and, in fact, was one of 10 Cavaliers to start all 12 games. Quin finished the year with 123 tackles which ranked him #2 in the ACC and #12 nationally. And, Quin led the team with 3 interceptions in the 2014 campaign. Big splash.

The number 11 recruit was Jalen Tabor, a CB signee with Florida. Jalon played in all 12 of Florida’s games in 2014 recording 31 total tackles (22 ua, 9 a) and 1 interception on the year. Jalen had a nice start to his career with Florida, worthy of splash status.

Number 12 in the class was yet another Alabama signee, ATH Bo Scarbrough. Although Bo signed with Alabama, he was not cleared to enroll in the fall due to some academic eligibility issues. Bo worked on these issues and was enrolled in Alabama in January and attended Bama practices leading up to the Sugar Bowl. No splash in 2014, but just wait.

The number 13 recruit was Raekwon McMillen, an ILB who signed with Ohio State. Raekwon played in 13 of the 14 games Ohio State played in 2014, having to sit out the Alabama contest in the Sugar Bowl. Although Raekwon did not start in any games, Ohio State has pretty good depth at linebacker, he did contribute significantly with 54 total tackles (30 ua, 24 a). Raekwon also recorded 2.5 sacks and 6.5 tackles for loss. Raekwon left no doubt in anybody’s mind that he will be a force to be reckoned with on the Ohio State defense – worthy of a splash.

Number 14 on the list was Lorenzo Carter, listed as a DE signing by Georgia. Lorenzo actually played as a linebacker for the Bulldogs, playing in all 13 games and starting in the last 5 games. Lorenzo recorded 41 total tackles (18 ua, 23 a), getting better as the season went on. Lorenzo also recorded 4.5 sacks and 7.0 tackles for loss, and he is responsible for 1 fumble recovered. Lorenzo made a splash on the Georgia defense.

And, finally, the number 15 and last of the five star recruits from the class of 2014 – and, Alabama’s fifth signee from this class, was CB Marlon Humphrey. Marlon happens to play a position that is deep at Alabama. Fellow CB recruit Tony Brown was able to find some playing time, but Marlon did not find the field in 2014. Things look good for Bama in the future with concerns to their defensive backfield, but no splashes were made in 2014 with their 5-star CB recruits.

So, all-in-all, the 2014 5-star recruits were shining pretty bright. SOD counts 9 recruits who made a splash for their teams in their true freshmen year. Two 5-stars did not find the field in 2014 – 1 red-shirt and 1 academically ineligible. And, another 5-star was injured and applied for a medical red-shirt.

But, let’s not give up on our other recruits who have yet to make the starting roster. As we celebrate the incoming class – poised to sign their LOIs tomorrow – let’s keep the love for those young men we followed so closely in 2014, 13, 12 and, in some cases, even 2011.

Have fun tomorrow and good luck with your signing class.

Colleges Represented on NFL Rosters

Today’s blog is almost an extension of yesterday’s article on “The Rich Getting Richer”.

Yesterday, we made the observation that the FBS schools on top of the Recruiting Class list are the same teams on the top of the Team Rankings at the end of the year, and, these teams seem to be pretty much the same year in and year out with little variation. Seems rather obvious, wouldn’t you say?

So, with it being a Friday and all, and, with Some Other Dude’s brain already in weekend mode, let’s make another obvious connection: One would expect that these same schools would lead the list of colleges with the most ex-players (I almost typed “graduates” – what was I thinking!?) on NFL rosters. And, you would be right. Let’s take a look.

The following table tallies the top schools in terms of players on NFL rosters; shows their current ranking in 2015 recruiting classes (according to ESPN); their ranking in most appearances in the Final AP Poll; and their final ranking in the 2014 AP poll.

Just the vicious cycle one might expect to see: do well in recruiting, and you will do well in the polls, and you will put lots of players in the NFL. And, the reverse is also true – put lots of players in the NFL and do well in the polls and it will help you with recruiting.

A few anomalies do stick out, however. Like … what is California doing so high up on the list of players on NFL rosters!? The Golden Bears do not have highly rated recruiting classes; they don’t finish in the AP Final Poll too often, and yet, they have the 11th most number of former players in the NFL. That was a little surprising.

Clemson and Texas A&M have highly rated recruiting classes for 2015 (3 & 8 respectively) but only rank 23 and 25 in number of players in the NFL.  You would expect them to start moving up that chart with the recent recruiting success they have achieved.

This chart also supports the observation made in yesterday’s blog that Oregon is a relative newcomer to the elite football programs club with a low ranking in the number of appearances in the final AP poll but high rankings in all the other categories.

This chart also seems to suggest that Miami-FL and Florida are programs that are slipping a bit of late.  Also missing from the table are Michigan, Nebraska and Penn State – all programs that rank in the top 10 for number of appearances in the final AP Poll but not in the top 15 for current NFL players. This may suggest that their fall from the top has gone on a little bit longer.

With the Super Bowl just two days away, this chart has been making its rounds through social media.

A neat little chart, but with only a two team sample it can skew the real results. A school like Rutgers can wave this banner at potential recruits as evidence that they put good players in the NFL. Even schools like Utah State and Kent State can be proud of this chart. But, when you look at the whole picture, Rutgers ranks tied for 34th with 18 players on NFL rosters; Utah State falls in at tied for 60 with 11; and, Kent State ranks tied for 70th with 9.

All of this is just fun facts to throw around while we await the Super Bowl on Sunday and Signing Day on Wednesday. The fun just never stops.

The Rich Getting Richer

National Signing Day, the first day High School seniors can officially commit to the college they will attend, is just around the corner, Wednesday, February 4.  If you have found yourself to this blog that is probably something you already know and are looking forward to.

No real surprises are expected, as regards to the top classes; there may be a few individual commit surprises, but not enough to drastically change the class rankings.  In some people’s minds it’s just more of, “the rich getting richer”.  Some Other Dude thinks of it more as, “the rich staying rich”.  One of the downfalls of signing such elite classes year after year is the resulting high number, relatively speaking, of early declarers into the NFL Draft each year – so, SOD thinks of it more as replacing your riches as opposed to adding to them.

If you look at the Class Rankings from any number of Recruiting Web Sites, you see the same, usual suspects at the top of the list.  The ESPN Top 10, for example, lists, in order from 1 – 10: Alabama, Florida State, Clemson, Georgia, Tennessee, USC, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Texas, and Notre Dame.  All elite programs, maintaining their elite status.  To no one’s surprise, 6 out of those 10 teams finished 2014 in the AP Top 25 rankings.  Just the rich staying rich.

So, it seems to SOD that this pattern of Top Classes stays pretty consistent from year to year.  This would support the feeling that the elite schools in college football stay pretty constant from year to year.  I wonder, thinks SOD, am I influenced by recent events, or does history bear this out?  If we grouped college football programs into classifications, such as: Elite Programs; Near Elite Programs; Middle of the Road Programs; Below Average Programs; and Bottom Dwellers, how hard is it for one program to move from one grouping to another, and, how often does that occur?

Just relying on SOD’s instinct, it seems there are not that many programs that have moved into Elite or Near Elite status in recent history.  Just go down this years’ Final AP Poll and put a label on each program and how long they’ve been in that classification.  Go ahead, I’ll wait.

SOD, using only his instinct and, rather challenged, memory, labeled the Top 10 this way:

• Ohio State – Elite for a long time
• Oregon – Relatively new Elite
• TCU –Near Elite, moving upwards
• Alabama – Elite for a long time
• Michigan State – Moves between Elite and Near Elite
• Florida State – Moves between Elite and Near Elite – Mostly Elite
• Baylor – Newly Near Elite, moving upwards
• Georgia Tech – Fluctuates through all categories
• UCLA – Moves between Elite and Near Elite

Interested to see if facts support perception, SOD found this web page that lists the total number of appearances each school has in the final AP Poll throughout the years.

At the top of the list is Michigan, with 57 appearances.  The Wolverines have fallen on hard times of late but have had a long enough history of being an elite program that it is going to take more than a few years of mediocrity to knock them from this group.  And, Jim Harbaugh might have some magic to help get them back into the club.

Tied for 2^nd with 54 appearances are Oklahoma and Ohio State.  Elite and elite, although Oklahoma is at risk of slipping a bit if they don’t get back into Top 10 levels soon.

And, as you continue down the list there are no real surprises – one elite program after another.  Those with a deep history of being top programs are the same ones that are tops today – for the most part.  Certainly you have programs that have periods of mediocrity sprinkled in, but, you wouldn’t be surprised to see them bounce back to the top soon.  For instance, programs like Tennessee, which hasn’t had a Top 10 team for some time, weighs in at #9 all time.  The Volunteers haven’t finished in the final AP Poll since 2007, when they were ranked #12, and haven’t been in the Top 10 since 2001 (#4).  Tennessee is slipping down the list, but, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see them back in the polls in the near future, especially given their Top 10 ranking in this year’s recruiting class.

This list does suggest that some of today’s better programs are new members to the Elite and Near Elite category, as SOD suspected.  TCU, a team that probably deserved a spot in this years’ playoff, ranks 29 on the all-time list.  Oregon, an elite program today, ranks only 39 on the list.  The Ducks have only 15 appearances in the Final AP Poll, 14 of them since 1994 and 11 appearances since 2000.  So, the Ducks are proof that a program can move up through the classifications – but, they are that rare breed.

And, there are programs, like Georgia Tech, that seem to enjoy a roller-coaster ride through the classifications.  The Yellow Jackets have 25 appearances in the final rankings scattered throughout the decades, never staying too long and never being absent for too long.

So, let’s do one final comparison; let’s compare the Top 25 in the Final AP Poll for the decade years against 2014.

• The 2010 Final AP Poll included 11 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll.
• The 2000 Final AP Poll included 10 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll.
• The 1990 Final AP Poll included 6 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll.
• The 1980 Final AP Poll included 7 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll.
• The 1970 Final AP Poll included 6 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll
• The 1960 Final AP Poll included 7 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll.
• The 1950 Final AP Poll included 4 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll.
• The 1940 Final AP Poll included 3 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll.

NOTE:  The 1940 – 1980 Polls only ranked the Top 20 teams.

So, if you go back far enough, the list of elite teams changes a bit more drastically, but, over the past 50 years or so, it appears that it is rather difficult for teams to move up on the elite program scale.  But, programs like Oregon and Baylor show that it can be done.  And, there are other programs, like Rutgers for instance, that have slowly moved up from Bottom Dwellers to Middle of the Road that could be on the precipice of Near Elite or higher, especially given the recent change in conference affiliation.

It is a slowly changing landscape, but, if you root for one of those teams on the journey, it can be a fun ride.