Jimmys and Joes

If you are a college football fan then you have probably heard the adage, “College football is not about the X’s and O’s; its all about the Jimmys and Joes”. Well, a lot of the Jimmys and Joes fell into place yesterday as National Signing Day 2015 finally arrived and recruits sent in their Letters of Intent (LOI) to the colleges and universities they will call home for the next 2 – 4 years, or so. Now, we will have to wait and see who actually got the right Jimmys and Joes.

In the final analyses, the number of stars the recruits bring with them won’t necessarily be the determining factor. Each class has only about 15 – 20 five star recruits – so, obviously, not enough to go around. Just how much separates a 4-star from a 5-star, or a 3 from a 4, is hard to say and is just a judgment call from self-labeled experts. Each individual coaching staff does their own evaluation and has their own inside-the-program ranking for each recruit. Also, coaches are looking beyond what recruit ranking sites look at and try to determine if the potential recruit is, what some coaches like to label, “our kinda guy” – an OKG.

The OKG is that young man who, above and beyond knowing how to play football and may already play in a system somewhat similar to the one the college employs, but also shares the values of the program; is willing to be coached; and has, as far as the coaching staff can determine, the mental and emotional maturity to fit right in and be a productive member of the football family – as a key contributor or otherwise.

Yes, the 4 and 5 star recruits garner the attention and receive the most applause and acclaim. And, more times than not, those 4 and 5 star recruits become the young men who form a solid foundation for elite football programs each year, but, SOD believes that what separates a good team from a great team are those who get the most out of their 2 and 3 star guys. Everybody fights hard to get those 4 and 5 star recruits and persuade them to commit, but the real science and the advantage gained is in finding those diamond in the rough guys, those 2s and 3s that you know you can develop into value-added contributors on your football team.

Chris Petersen (and his predecessors and successors) put together a nice little program at Boise State by finding those 2 and 3 star recruits who fit their system and were OKGs. Now Coach Petersen is going to try to do the same with, hopefully, 4 and 5 star recruits at Washington to regain some Husky glory.

Meanwhile, Boise State continues to excel with their OKGs. According to Rivals.com, the 2015 Boise State recruiting class comes in at #64. The Broncos class of ’14 was ranked #65; the ’13 class was #62; the ’12 class was #54 – and, yet, Boise State finished 2014 ranked #16 in the AP Poll and finished ranked #18 in 2012 – so, something is working with those Jimmys and Joes. This either suggests that there is something Xs and Os bring to the table or the real value of your coaching staff is their ability to get the most out of the Jimmys and Joes who do play for you.

So, as we tie a bow on the 2015 Recruiting class – with everyone but ‘Bama fans sick and tired of seeing the Crimson Tide ranked #1 again – coaching staffs are already knee deep into working on the 2016 class. Almost every coach interviewed yesterday on one of the numerous shows covering National Signing Day indicated that they already have recruit visits scheduled for the rest of this week to meet next years’ prospective recruits. Although it feels like Signing Day ends one cycle and starts another, don’t be fooled. Your top-of-the-heap programs are already well into the Class of 2016 – just look at those teams who finished ranked in the Top 5 this year.

According to ESPN’s Recruiting Nation,
• Alabama already has 3 verbal commitments for their 2016 class.
• Florida State has 7.
• USC has 3.
• Clemson has 7.
• Tennessee has 8.

It never ends.

The recruiting game is just one fun aspect of what separates college football from the NFL. And, it is what makes coaching this game a full-time job. The college football off-season is that proverbial duck on a pond (no, not an Oregon Duck), it looks smooth and easy on the surface, but there is a lot of energy and movement going on underneath.

Good luck to all you Jimmys and Joes; SOD hopes your college decisions work out well for you and your university.

Colleges Represented on NFL Rosters

Today’s blog is almost an extension of yesterday’s article on “The Rich Getting Richer”.

Yesterday, we made the observation that the FBS schools on top of the Recruiting Class list are the same teams on the top of the Team Rankings at the end of the year, and, these teams seem to be pretty much the same year in and year out with little variation. Seems rather obvious, wouldn’t you say?

So, with it being a Friday and all, and, with Some Other Dude’s brain already in weekend mode, let’s make another obvious connection: One would expect that these same schools would lead the list of colleges with the most ex-players (I almost typed “graduates” – what was I thinking!?) on NFL rosters. And, you would be right. Let’s take a look.

The following table tallies the top schools in terms of players on NFL rosters; shows their current ranking in 2015 recruiting classes (according to ESPN); their ranking in most appearances in the Final AP Poll; and their final ranking in the 2014 AP poll.

Just the vicious cycle one might expect to see: do well in recruiting, and you will do well in the polls, and you will put lots of players in the NFL. And, the reverse is also true – put lots of players in the NFL and do well in the polls and it will help you with recruiting.

A few anomalies do stick out, however. Like … what is California doing so high up on the list of players on NFL rosters!? The Golden Bears do not have highly rated recruiting classes; they don’t finish in the AP Final Poll too often, and yet, they have the 11th most number of former players in the NFL. That was a little surprising.

Clemson and Texas A&M have highly rated recruiting classes for 2015 (3 & 8 respectively) but only rank 23 and 25 in number of players in the NFL.  You would expect them to start moving up that chart with the recent recruiting success they have achieved.

This chart also supports the observation made in yesterday’s blog that Oregon is a relative newcomer to the elite football programs club with a low ranking in the number of appearances in the final AP poll but high rankings in all the other categories.

This chart also seems to suggest that Miami-FL and Florida are programs that are slipping a bit of late.  Also missing from the table are Michigan, Nebraska and Penn State – all programs that rank in the top 10 for number of appearances in the final AP Poll but not in the top 15 for current NFL players. This may suggest that their fall from the top has gone on a little bit longer.

With the Super Bowl just two days away, this chart has been making its rounds through social media.

A neat little chart, but with only a two team sample it can skew the real results. A school like Rutgers can wave this banner at potential recruits as evidence that they put good players in the NFL. Even schools like Utah State and Kent State can be proud of this chart. But, when you look at the whole picture, Rutgers ranks tied for 34th with 18 players on NFL rosters; Utah State falls in at tied for 60 with 11; and, Kent State ranks tied for 70th with 9.

All of this is just fun facts to throw around while we await the Super Bowl on Sunday and Signing Day on Wednesday. The fun just never stops.

The Rich Getting Richer

National Signing Day, the first day High School seniors can officially commit to the college they will attend, is just around the corner, Wednesday, February 4.  If you have found yourself to this blog that is probably something you already know and are looking forward to.

No real surprises are expected, as regards to the top classes; there may be a few individual commit surprises, but not enough to drastically change the class rankings.  In some people’s minds it’s just more of, “the rich getting richer”.  Some Other Dude thinks of it more as, “the rich staying rich”.  One of the downfalls of signing such elite classes year after year is the resulting high number, relatively speaking, of early declarers into the NFL Draft each year – so, SOD thinks of it more as replacing your riches as opposed to adding to them.

If you look at the Class Rankings from any number of Recruiting Web Sites, you see the same, usual suspects at the top of the list.  The ESPN Top 10, for example, lists, in order from 1 – 10: Alabama, Florida State, Clemson, Georgia, Tennessee, USC, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Texas, and Notre Dame.  All elite programs, maintaining their elite status.  To no one’s surprise, 6 out of those 10 teams finished 2014 in the AP Top 25 rankings.  Just the rich staying rich.

So, it seems to SOD that this pattern of Top Classes stays pretty consistent from year to year.  This would support the feeling that the elite schools in college football stay pretty constant from year to year.  I wonder, thinks SOD, am I influenced by recent events, or does history bear this out?  If we grouped college football programs into classifications, such as: Elite Programs; Near Elite Programs; Middle of the Road Programs; Below Average Programs; and Bottom Dwellers, how hard is it for one program to move from one grouping to another, and, how often does that occur?

Just relying on SOD’s instinct, it seems there are not that many programs that have moved into Elite or Near Elite status in recent history.  Just go down this years’ Final AP Poll and put a label on each program and how long they’ve been in that classification.  Go ahead, I’ll wait.

SOD, using only his instinct and, rather challenged, memory, labeled the Top 10 this way:

• Ohio State – Elite for a long time
• Oregon – Relatively new Elite
• TCU –Near Elite, moving upwards
• Alabama – Elite for a long time
• Michigan State – Moves between Elite and Near Elite
• Florida State – Moves between Elite and Near Elite – Mostly Elite
• Baylor – Newly Near Elite, moving upwards
• Georgia Tech – Fluctuates through all categories
• UCLA – Moves between Elite and Near Elite

Interested to see if facts support perception, SOD found this web page that lists the total number of appearances each school has in the final AP Poll throughout the years.

At the top of the list is Michigan, with 57 appearances.  The Wolverines have fallen on hard times of late but have had a long enough history of being an elite program that it is going to take more than a few years of mediocrity to knock them from this group.  And, Jim Harbaugh might have some magic to help get them back into the club.

Tied for 2^nd with 54 appearances are Oklahoma and Ohio State.  Elite and elite, although Oklahoma is at risk of slipping a bit if they don’t get back into Top 10 levels soon.

And, as you continue down the list there are no real surprises – one elite program after another.  Those with a deep history of being top programs are the same ones that are tops today – for the most part.  Certainly you have programs that have periods of mediocrity sprinkled in, but, you wouldn’t be surprised to see them bounce back to the top soon.  For instance, programs like Tennessee, which hasn’t had a Top 10 team for some time, weighs in at #9 all time.  The Volunteers haven’t finished in the final AP Poll since 2007, when they were ranked #12, and haven’t been in the Top 10 since 2001 (#4).  Tennessee is slipping down the list, but, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see them back in the polls in the near future, especially given their Top 10 ranking in this year’s recruiting class.

This list does suggest that some of today’s better programs are new members to the Elite and Near Elite category, as SOD suspected.  TCU, a team that probably deserved a spot in this years’ playoff, ranks 29 on the all-time list.  Oregon, an elite program today, ranks only 39 on the list.  The Ducks have only 15 appearances in the Final AP Poll, 14 of them since 1994 and 11 appearances since 2000.  So, the Ducks are proof that a program can move up through the classifications – but, they are that rare breed.

And, there are programs, like Georgia Tech, that seem to enjoy a roller-coaster ride through the classifications.  The Yellow Jackets have 25 appearances in the final rankings scattered throughout the decades, never staying too long and never being absent for too long.

So, let’s do one final comparison; let’s compare the Top 25 in the Final AP Poll for the decade years against 2014.

• The 2010 Final AP Poll included 11 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll.
• The 2000 Final AP Poll included 10 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll.
• The 1990 Final AP Poll included 6 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll.
• The 1980 Final AP Poll included 7 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll.
• The 1970 Final AP Poll included 6 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll
• The 1960 Final AP Poll included 7 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll.
• The 1950 Final AP Poll included 4 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll.
• The 1940 Final AP Poll included 3 of the same teams as in the Final 2014 Poll.

NOTE:  The 1940 – 1980 Polls only ranked the Top 20 teams.

So, if you go back far enough, the list of elite teams changes a bit more drastically, but, over the past 50 years or so, it appears that it is rather difficult for teams to move up on the elite program scale.  But, programs like Oregon and Baylor show that it can be done.  And, there are other programs, like Rutgers for instance, that have slowly moved up from Bottom Dwellers to Middle of the Road that could be on the precipice of Near Elite or higher, especially given the recent change in conference affiliation.

It is a slowly changing landscape, but, if you root for one of those teams on the journey, it can be a fun ride.

30 Random Thoughts for the First Post on a New College Football Blog

1) The last thing the world needs is another blog on College Football.
2) Especially, a College Football blog written by a schmuck with no business writing a College Football Blog.
3) Starting a new College Football Blog on January 23 is about as stupid as it gets.
4) Since Braxton Miller has already graduated and does not have to sit out a year if he transfers – I think he should transfer.
5) Remember that Russell Wilson did number 4.
6) Even though almost every analyst I hear is saying Marcus Mariota is a can’t miss NFL prospect – I think he can miss.
7) I hope Jameis Winston grows up.
8) I bet the Baltimore Ravens don’t trade up to get Jameis Winston in the draft – or ever.
9) I think the Big 12 is making a Big mistake if it doesn’t expand to Championship-size.
10) I bet Bo Pelini doesn’t coach at Youngstown State for more than 1 year.
11) Just to keep things cosmically balanced, the Pac-12 should add Colorado State and Utah State to become the Pac-14.
12) Notre Dame and BYU need to join a conference.
13) Boise State should be in a big boy conference.
14) TCU still has good reason to be upset.
15) I am available to be a member of the Playoff Selection Committee – just say’n.
16) Urban Meyer and Jim Harbaugh have the potential of being a modern day Woody Hayes and Bo Shembechler. And, that would be cool. (Although Woody and Bo had a secret admiration for each other – I’m not sure Urban and Jim will develop that.)
17) Washington Huskies v. Boise State Broncos is a GREAT Week 1 match-up for 2015.
18) Becoming eligible for bowl games again; getting scholarships back; and getting wins re-instated is no excuse for Penn State to not follow up on lessons learned from the Jerry Sandusky tragedy.
19) The SEC is still a powerful football conference – with or without an ESPN bias.
20) I know I’m a nerd, but, I like the Kirk Herbstreit / Lee Corso dynamics.
21) I know I’m a nerd, but, I hate the Lou Holtz / Mark May dynamics.
22) I’m a nerd.
23) The winner of the 2015 Heisman Trophy will not be on the list of leading candidates going into the season.
24) Oregon and Florida State will not be in the Playoffs next year.
25) Ohio State and Alabama will be in the Playoffs next year.
26) Mississippi State and Ole Miss will not be in the Playoff discussion late in the season again.
27) TCU and Baylor will be in the Playoff discussion late in the season again.
28) I was impressed with Cardale Jone’s Press Conference announcing he is returning to school. I hope he does get his degree.
29) The odds of me keeping this blog going are 100,000:1.
30) The odds of anyone actually reading this blog are even greater than that.